Drapier - An insider's guide to politics: Who said the following - "Ladies and Gentlemen, it's showtime again, let's party"?
The words are those of Fianna Fáil guru P.J. Mara in the Shelbourne Hotel on Friday April 26th, 2002, when Fianna Fáil launched its general election campaign. How inappropriate the words were then, but they served a purpose in that Bertie stomped the country wooing all he met and the votes flocked in.
But in Drapier's opinion, it is that campaign, the promises made, and the aftermath of that election, which played a major part in bringing Fianna Fáil to the position it now holds two years later.
There is now real fear among the serried ranks of Fianna Fáil deputies and senators. The rise of Sinn Féin, the acceptance of Fine Gael and Enda Kenny by the electorate, the stabilisation of Labour all have contributed to a mix of political unease, which mostly affects the Soldiers of Destiny.
Sinn Féin has conducted its European and local campaigns with ruthless efficiency, resulting in strong gains, but in particular targeting areas with potential TDs for the next general election.
Let's take the example of Pearse Doherty in the European constituency of North West. His strong result will almost certainly mean there will be Sinn Féin deputies from Donegal and other parts of the North West when the general election comes around. Similar stories unfold in many other areas, particularly in Dublin city and county.
The local elections threw up many other salient factors. There are many wards in Dublin where the unthinkable happened, in that there are no Fianna Fáil councillors, but Sinn Féin councillors abound.
The Opposition tails are up and the corridors in Leinster House this week saw the tanned and smiling face of Mairead McGuinness being introduced left, right and centre. Dáil and now European incumbents, Marian Harkin and Simon Coveney, were clearly delighted. Eoin Ryan was smiling too. He conducted a great campaign throughout, was serious and focused on European issues, and most importantly of all, never lost faith in himself that he could do it.
So many cameos, so many political snippets, so much gossip from the hustings, that Drapier would need 40 columns to cover it all.
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Drapier understands that the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party meeting on Tuesday was interesting to say the least.
Reportedly, there was an effort to have a post-mortem deferred and a plan to that effect was proposed and seconded, but a sea of hands demanded debate and debate there was.
It appears that over 40 members spoke, and there was no targeting whatsoever of the Taoiseach. The main anger was directed at the PDs who seem far too easy and predictable a target. However, when the Taoiseach promised to meet individually with anyone who wished to speak to him, this softened many a rough tongue.
The general comment around Leinster House was that the Taoiseach would do well to carry out his ministerial reshuffle before the Dáil breaks up, but he seems adamant that he wants to leave it until September.
Innate caution has contributed to his view in this regard, but it is also coupled with a determination to keep backbenchers quiet through hope of preferment come September.
He would do well to be bold on this occasion, to strike while the iron is hot and make the necessary changes. Rather than gazing at the entrails of defeat, the party would have new faces and a new focus.
Fianna Fáil is stirred and shaken, but is it determined enough to learn the lessons which June 11th has thrown up? Changes postponed to post-summer carry dangers of complacency.
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The other main topic in Leinster House this week could be called Home and Away. There is a clear view that Bertie Ahern made a great job of the European presidency, winning huge plaudits for Ireland for his work rate, his ability, and, above all, for his well- known facility for reaching a consensus.
That leads to the question, is he going for the top European job, replacing Mr Prodi, or will his love of Drumcondra/Dublin keep him at home? Speculation is rife and opinions are divided. On the one hand, the Taoiseach is strong in his pronouncements that he will stay at home and lead the party into the next general election.
On the other, is this a Bertie ploy, will the Belgian and Luxembourg nominees fail the test and will the mantle fall on An Taoiseach? Or will the decision be left until mid-July? If one was inclined to the Machiavellian point of view, one could say that Bertie had laid the ground well by his strong determination to stay put in Ireland, which could then lead to his reluctant acceptance to fill the breach in Europe and so convey high honour on Ireland. The thrills, the spills. The highs and lows. The will-he, won't-he. Changing moods in the corridors this week were worthy of a political novel.
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In an earlier article Drapier wrote that Dana should not be written out of the political equation come European election day. Well Dana (Rosemary Scallon) did not get a seat, but she got a terrific vote which left many political pundits speechless.
Prior to the election Drapier had been in the company of Oireachtas members who said Dana would be obliterated. More astute voices said she was still a force to be reckoned with. It is not the end of Dana and it is understood that she is pondering a niche media career here.
Fianna Fáil failed to field a woman candidate in any of the European constituencies. At local level a paltry 9 per cent of the candidates elected for Fianna Fáil were women. Will anything happen? Come the autumn will it be cherchez les femmes? Don't hold your breath. And still Mary Lou, Lucinda Creighton and Wendy Hederman smile down vivaciously from the lamp posts.