Opposition parties pay the price for being afraid to strike

The Opposition parties have been rocked to the core by the findings of The Irish Times poll which flew in the face of conventional political wisdom. The only sliver lining for the alternative government is that the warning has come six to eight months before the election so they have a little bit of time to try and rectify their mistakes.

The problem is that they don't know why their long-standing lead in the polls suddenly evaporated after a controversy that seemed tailor-made to damage the Government.

There is no easy answer to their conundrum but, at its heart, is the widespread perception among a significant segment of the electorate that the Opposition parties do not have what it takes to run the country.

While they had invested a lot of political capital in criticising the Government, voters are clearly looking for something more, and they haven't seen it to date.

The handling of the Ahern payments controversy by the Opposition may provide a clue as to what has gone wrong.

Fine Gael and Labour followed the media lead and dragged the controversy out for nearly three weeks but did not deliver a killer blow or even attempt one.

That they shied way from proposing a motion of no confidence in Mr Ahern demonstrated a lack of faith in their case that it was wrong for him to have taken money for personal use when minister for finance.

Of course, the reason they didn't go in for the kill was that they anticipated a wave of sympathy for Mr Ahern, and made the political calculation that it would be counter-productive to attack him too strongly.

Fine Gael and Labour know that Mr Ahern is virtually invulnerable as far as a large proportion of the electorate is concerned, and they can't figure out what to do about it.

Willing to wound but afraid to strike, they ended up looking petulant and weak.

It is probably true to argue that if they had gone in much harder the sympathy for Mr Ahern would have been even greater, but it is hard to see how they could have come off worse if they conducted a short, sharp attack that focused on the ethical issue and then moved on.

They are now in the position where they don't know whether there is any point in pursuing issues relating to low standards in high places because the voters just don't seem to care.

By contrast, Fianna Fáil came out on top because the party reacted to the controversy with a strong, coherent message.

Although the Taoiseach bumbled his way through a couple of fraught media opportunities he clearly scored with his one-to-one television interview on the RTÉ news.

The voters were subsequently impressed that one Fianna Fáil Minister after another came out in support of the Taoiseach, regardless of how unbelievable his story was.

Michael McDowell also came well out of a controversy in which he was widely criticised for flip-flopping. As far as a majority of voters were concerned, he ultimately came out on the right side and that was good enough for them.

Paradoxically, although the Taoiseach and all his Ministers refused to concede that he had done anything wrong, the voters were quite clear in their minds that he was wrong to take the money. However, they don't appear to believe that it matters all that much whether politicians take money or not.

Ultimately what impressed the voters was that Fianna Fáil appeared to be in control of the situation, embarrassing and all as it was. In spite of largely negative saturation coverage in the media and criticism from all the Opposition parties, Fianna Fáil stuck with its line and voters accepted it warts and all.

Leaving the rights and wrongs of the payments issue aside, there is a clear message for the Opposition. Voters are impressed by politicians who seem to know what they are about, and who are capable of delivering a strong, coherent message.

One thing the Opposition has to stop doing is worrying about getting media approval or provoking criticism from political opponents. Fine Gael and Labour both appear scared to take a stand on any issue that is capable of generating hostility towards them. Yet they will only demonstrate to the voters that they are capable of government if they take a firm stand on issues that may result in short-term hostility from their natural opponents.

A case in point is the issue of immigration, which was raised by Pat Rabbitte in an Irish Times interview back in January. The general reaction in the media was bitterly hostile and the Government taunted him for deviating from the officially-accepted line. Yet the standing of Mr Rabbitte and his party rose in the next poll. It recent times the ESRI and other respected economic commentators have followed his lead and queried whether the current levels of immigration are good for the country, proving that he was right to raise the issue as a subject for rational debate.

Another case in point was the stand Enda Kenny took against the Government's secret deal with Sinn Féin to release the killers of Garda Jerry McCabe. Many media commentators were incensed that Mr Kenny was upsetting the "peace process" but the voters endorsed him in the next poll.

One thing that is obviously not going to win the election for the Opposition is attacking Bertie Ahern, but coming up with a small number of clear and innovative policies on issues that matter is crucial.

The poll shows the state of the health and other public services is easily the biggest issue with voters and most actually believe that Fine Gael and Labour could do a better job than the Government. Producing easily-understood solutions rather than continued whingeing might put them back in the contest.