OPINION:The US president's initial progress on economics, healthcare, conflict and the environment have won widespread support, writes DENIS STAUNTON
AS BARACK Obama approaches his 100th day in office tomorrow, White House aides publicly dismiss the anniversary as a “Hallmark holiday” – a phony anniversary that says little about the new administration’s progress or prospects.
Since 1933, however, when Franklin Delano Roosevelt unleashed a flood of New Deal legislation during his first weeks in office, Americans have watched their presidents’ first 100 days for signs of how the next four years will unfold.
By any measure, Obama has made an impressive and dramatic start, passing the biggest economic stimulus package in his country’s history, introducing a sweeping budget aimed at rebalancing the economy, and taking the first steps towards giving all Americans access to affordable healthcare.
Facing the worst economic crisis since the 1930s, the president has launched a complex and controversial initiative to bail out the banking system and introduced a tough plan to restructure the ailing American car industry. He has ordered the closure of the detention centre at Guantánamo Bay, banned CIA interrogators from using torture, set out a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq and stepped up the US role in Afghanistan. During his visit to Europe and meetings with Latin American leaders, Obama has presented a new face of American leadership – emphasising multilateralism, respect for others and a readiness to engage directly with those who disagree with American policies.
The American public is impressed, with two out of three voters approving of the president’s performance, even if many are uncertain his policies will be effective. Obama has lifted the mood in his country, so that for the first time in five years, more Americans now say their country is on the right track.
After George W Bush, one of the most unpopular presidents in US history, Obama was always going to receive a welcome both at home and abroad. His calm, cool demeanour reassures Americans at a time of crisis and his personal charm and gift for empathy helped to win over foreign leaders at the G20 in London and the Summit of the Americas in Trinidad and Tobago.
The president also benefits from comparison with a deeply unpopular and increasingly desperate Republican opposition that has yet to recover its bearings after last year’s election defeat. Conservative talk radio has a loyal, narrow audience for its denunciations of Obama as a socialist tyrant who is ashamed of his country but most Americans see their president as a moderate, likable figure trying to make the right decisions.
If Obama’s conservative critics are angry he is moving too far to the left, many of his liberal supporters are disappointed he has not embraced a more radical policy overhaul. They complain the bank bailout designed by treasury secretary Timothy Geithner and chief economic advisor Larry Summers rewards those on Wall Street who were responsible for the financial crisis.
The president’s shifting position on how to deal with Bush administration officials who authorised torture has also upset many core supporters. A court deadline gave the White House little choice about releasing the previous administration’s memos detailing harsh interrogation techniques the CIA could use on suspected terrorists.
Since the documents were published, however, Obama has lurched between expressing support for a truth commission to investigate the torture to suggesting that no former officials should face prosecution and that Americans should look forward rather than dwell on the past.
Democrats in Congress are also divided on how to deal with the issue, not least because some senior members of the party may have known of and approved the harsh treatment of detainees.
Obama’s decision to ratchet up the US military presence in Afghanistan worries many Democrats, even as they welcome the increased emphasis on a regional diplomatic solution. An effective regional approach may need the support of Iran, a consideration that adds urgency to Obama’s attempt to improve relations with Tehran.
Progress on Iran is linked in turn with the peace process between Israelis and Palestinians, with Israel’s new government insisting that reducing its perceived threat from Iran is essential to reaching a settlement.
After a series of early missteps, Obama has assembled a powerful team – notably in the area of national security, where there is little sign of the rivalry some feared would develop between secretary of state Hillary Clinton and the president’s other foreign policy advisers. The primary focus, however, is on the economy and Obama has surprised Washington with the ambition of his plan to reshape it.
In a speech at Georgetown University earlier this month, the president drew from the Sermon on the Mount to explain that he wants to leave behind him an economy “built on rock” rather than sand. “Even as we continue to clear away the wreckage and address the immediate crisis, it is my firm belief that our next task, beginning now, is to make sure such a crisis never happens again. Even as we clean up balance sheets and get credit flowing again, even as people start spending and businesses start hiring – all that’s going to happen – we have to realise that we cannot go back to the bubble-and-bust economy that led us to this point,” he said.
“It is not sustainable to have an economy where in one year, 40 per cent of our corporate profits came from a financial sector that was based on inflated home prices, maxed-out credit cards, over-leveraged banks and overvalued assets. It’s not sustainable to have an economy where the income of the top 1 per cent has skyrocketed while the typical working household has seen their incomes decline by nearly $2,000. That’s just not a sustainable model for long-term prosperity.” Some of Obama’s domestic ambitions – redistribution of wealth from the richest Americans to the middle class and the poor, universal healthcare and a more sustainable energy policy – are traditional Democratic goals. Indeed, he is willing to go much further than Bill Clinton in restoring the government’s role in the economy and rolling back the tide of deregulation and inequality that began under Ronald Reagan.
Obama’s strategy for achieving these goals is a new one, however, emphasising behavioural economics rather than direct government intervention to reach desired outcomes. In healthcare reform, for example, Obama rejects both a single-payer, government-funded health service and a mandate requiring all Americans to buy private health insurance. Instead, the administration is pushing a plan that would regulate the private insurance industry by banning discrimination on the basis of medical conditions and create a government-owned rival insurance plan the White House believes will nudge private insurers towards lower premiums and cost savings.
On climate change, Obama favours a cap and trade system that would provide incentives for businesses to reduce carbon emissions rather than imposing individual limits. The administration’s resistance to calls for the nationalisation of banks is consistent with this determination to avoid interfering too directly in the market.
It is too early to say if Obama’s domestic and foreign policy plans will succeed, and his popularity could fade very quickly if the economy fails to improve by the middle of next year. What his first 100 days have shown beyond doubt, however, is that this is a president in pursuit of transformative goals who is willing to embrace innovative and imaginative means to achieve them.