Nothing of substance between the parties

The electors of Dublin North and Limerick East will not have much to choose from this day week when they vote in the by-elections. Nor will it matter much what the outcome will be, nor what effect it will have on the fate of the present minority Government.

For the dreary reality is that there is nothing of substance now differentiating the parties from each other. Certainly there is nothing to differentiate the two options for government: the present right-wing alliance of Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats or the alternative right-wing alliance of Fine Gael, Labour and Democratic Left.

The Rainbow will protest that it would not have had a budget which so unfairly favoured the rich, as did Charlie McCreevy's December Budget, and it would have insisted on a full investigation of the Ansbacher accounts.

But what did the Rainbow budgets do but favour the rich as well, and the main partner in the Rainbow, Fine Gael, voted to restrict the inquiry into the Ansbacher accounts.

At a time when the Catholic Church's influence on Irish society generally has been undermined, it is a Catholic institution, the justice office of the Conference of Religious of Ireland (CORI), which has become the arbiter of standards of economic and social justice. Its verdicts on successive budgets have been the most telling in the last six years.

CORI said of Ruairi Quinn's first budget in 1995: 'Instead of giving priority to tackling poverty, unemployment and exclusion, it has once again produced a budget which benefits the better off more than it benefits the poor . . . the gap between social welfare and all others widened as a result of the budget . . . the gap between (unemployed people) and everyone else will widen substantially more in the course of 1995.'

In 1996 CORI welcomed the increase in child benefit allowances and the positive discrimination in favour of the unemployed but concluded: 'It is clear that most of the resources will continue to go to the better off in society.'

It was in connection with the 1996 budget that the present leader of the Labour Party, Ruairi Quinn, announced that as finance minister he would not meet deputations in connection with the budget and the Finance Bill, other than the 'social partners'. However, he agreed to invitations being sent to those who could afford a £200 lunch to sup with him at the very time he was drafting the Finance Bill. The invitation was withdrawn after a fuss was caused.

Commenting on the Rainbow's and Ruairi Quinn's last budget (1997), CORI said: 'The massive new resources which are coming on stream have been allocated to those who are already better off . . . When the whole budget is evaluated, it is clear that most of the resources will continue to go to the better off in Irish society.

'This budget aggravates the widening of the poverty gap between the long-term unemployed and all those with jobs. The gap in take-home income between an unemployed couple and a couple on £20,000 a year has widened by £150 a year in this budget alone. Compared to a couple on a salary of £40,000, a gap has widened by £1,070.'

CORI went on to observe that during the lifetime of the Rainbow government (the so-called left-wing alliance) the income gap between an unemployed couple and a couple on £40,000 a year had widened by £2,737 a year. 'These figures alone are a devastating indictment of government policy,' it stated.

True, CORI was even more scathing about the 1997 Budget ('consciously redistributed the benefits of economic growth to the better off . . . It will deepen the divisions in Irish society'). But essentially, the difference between the budgets of Bertie Ahern, Charlie McCreevy and Mary Harney and those of John Bruton, Ruairi Quinn and Proinsias De Rossa is one of degree.

They all favour the rich over the poor, however much they may protest otherwise. They have all colluded in the consolidation of inequity in Irish society. And this at a time of wealth generation previously unknown in Ireland and hardly equalled in Europe any time this century at least.

Last week the stockbroking firm, ABN-AMRO, published its quarterly view of the Irish economy. It stated that the GNP growth rate in 1997 was over 10 per cent. The cumulative rise in GNP over the last five years was an 'astonishing' 42 per cent. Ireland has never seen anything like this in its history, and the indications are that this will continue. ABN-AMRO is predicting a growth rate of 8 per cent for 1998. The indications are that for the next several years the growth rate will be over 6 per cent.

Ireland will soon be one of the richest countries in Europe, certainly, on a per-capita basis richer than the United Kingdom.

This bonanza is creating more jobs and reducing unemployment. The numbers on the live register will have dropped from just under 300,000 in 1993 to an estimated 224,000 in 1998. The unemployment rate dropped below 10 per cent at the end of 1997, compared with 15.5 per cent in 1993. Having had one of the highest unemployment rates in Europe we now have one of the lowest (the EU average is now over 11 per cent).

But about 6 per cent of the labour force is long-term unemployed, and no rising boats will help them or their dependants.

Given the scale of economic success, we thus have a unique opportunity to create here a fair society. But to do that we have to ensure that the budgets of the coming several years shift resources decisively in favour of the poor. CORI has argued for years in favour of a basic income and, now at least, we have the wealth to provide it - a basic guarantee to everyone in society of a minimum income. It is the sure-fire way of ensuring that the poor benefit most.

But not one of the political parties will touch it. For it would involve the spectre of tax increases for the better off. And that, politically, is anathema. And it will remain anathema until politicians and others start arguing for a fairer society, simply on the grounds of justice, if necessary bolstered by pragmatic considerations of stability.

There are a few candidates worth considering in Dublin North and Limerick East. It has been my good fortune to meet almost all of them. In Dublin North there is the Progressive Democrats candidate, Finian Fallon, and the Socialist Party's Clare Daly. In Limerick East by far the most impressive candidate is Labour's Jan O'Sullivan. However, John Gilligan, an independent candidate, and John Ryan of Democratic Left are impressive as well.

But apart from Clare Daly and John Gilligan (perhaps) there is not one of them now in favour of the kind of radical measures that could achieve a qualitative improvement in equity. For that reason and because otherwise it makes no difference who gets elected, a vote for Clare Daly in Dublin North and John Gilligan in Limerick East might make a difference.