It's almost becoming monotonous. Another crisis, another failure to reach agreement, and the political institutions once again on the verge of collapse.
We have been there so many times before with the North's peace process. Unionists are blaming the Provisional IRA, nationalists are blaming unionists and we have the prospect of another round of negotiations to try to sort it all out.
Yesterday was the effective deadline for the parties to reach an agreement if the Assembly was to be recalled to elect a First and Deputy First Minister by Saturday midnight. Both Sinn Fein and the Ulster Unionists held separate talks with the Northern Secretary, Dr John Reid, at Hillsborough Castle yesterday.
There were, however, no serious last-minute attempts to reach an agreement. Rather, both parties appeared to concentrate their efforts on lobbying Dr Reid on what he should do now it was obvious there would be no agreement.
The UUP team favoured suspension of the Assembly. It was the lesser of two evils, they argued. Mr Trimble wasn't even at Hillsborough to make the argument. His party's delegation was led by Sir Reg Empey. The UUP leader had already left for London and is heading on holiday to Austria today.
Speaking earlier, Mr Trimble argued strongly for suspension. It had worked before, he claimed. The Provisional IRA had eventually been pressurised into movement on decommissioning after a former northern secretary, Mr Peter Mandelson, suspended the Assembly in February 2000.
Sinn Fein's favoured option is for Dr Reid to call fresh elections to the Assembly. The party dramatically increased its vote in June's Westminster poll and further gains, at the SDLP's expense, would be likely in any autumn election. However, Sinn Fein doesn't want to be seen to be too eager to get to the polls.
Dr Reid was saying nothing yesterday but British government sources suggested suspension was the most likely option. Electoral gains for Sinn Fein and - even worse from London's viewpoint - the DUP were not what would move the process forward, they said.
And the UUP placed added pressure on Dr Reid by threatening to pull all its ministers from the Executive if the British government didn't suspend the Assembly. Officially, the UUP denied this but senior party sources insisted it was true.
Northern Ireland Office sources said Dr Reid would most likely make an announcement on the Assembly's future today or tomorrow. He would talk by telephone with the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen. Mr Tony Blair and Mr Ahern would also communicate from their respective holiday homes.
There had been some hope earlier this week that a Provisional IRA statement might save the institutions. The statement which came on Wednesday night, however, fell far short of what Mr Trimble needed to return to government with Sinn Fein.
It simply said the IRA had agreed a scheme of putting arms beyond use with the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning. It went no further than the IICD's own statement on Monday. Mr Trimble had needed details of how and when the Provisionals would decommission.
If Dr Reid uses a legal loophole to suspend the Assembly this weekend, and then almost immediately restores it, the parties are granted another six weeks to reach agreement. Unionist sources predicted the scenario would run something like this.
The British government would publish its policing implementation plan, which nationalists have demanded. Renewed pressure would then be placed on the IRA to move on decommissioning.
Republican sources are not ruling out future progress by the IRA on the arms issue but it will have to be fairly substantial if Mr Trimble is to sell it to his party.
Senior UUP sources said the IRA would have to start actual decommissioning: a timetable would not be enough. The IICD would have to give details of where and how decommissioning took place and what was decommissioned.
"A vague statement from Gen de Chastelain saying the IRA put some weapons beyond use is not enough," said one source. "Unionist trust in the IICD is very low."
Although divided over what should happen next, nationalists and pro-Agreement unionists are genuinely saddened by the imminent collapse of the political institutions. Anti-agreement unionists, however, see the situation as inevitable. "`This entire process was built on contradictions and ambiguity," says DUP deputy leader, Mr Peter Robinson.
Nationalists were sold the agreement on the basis that the IRA need not decommission, he says, while unionists were told an arms handover was mandatory. "These contradictions couldn't be reconciled forever and now they are coming to the fore."