Environmentalists have long made the case that humanity is facing potentially catastrophic consequences unless progress is made in reducing the greenhouse gas emissions that are blamed for global warming. Scientists too have produced evidence supporting this grim prognosis. And now the British government has published an economic analysis which concludes that ignoring the phenomenon could lead to upheaval on the scale of the 1930s Depression.
Prime minister Tony Blair and chancellor Gordon Brown set aside their political differences yesterday to highlight the conclusions of Sir Nicholas Stern, a former chief economist of the World Bank. In what Mr Blair described as the most important document put before his government, Sir Nicholas outlined a bleak future of mass flooding, falling crop yields, reduced water supplies and heat waves.
This cataclysmic picture presents the international community with an immense challenge which can only be addressed by the kind of united approach that has been absent to date. Some of the world's largest carbon dioxide emitters - including the US and China - are not bound by the terms of the Kyoto Protocol which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to levels lower than those which existed in 1990.
As it happens, Sir Nicholas's call for ameliorative action - and the overwhelming case set out by him for it - coincided with the release at the weekend of new European Environment Agency projections which suggest that Ireland will significantly overshoot its Kyoto targets unless much stronger measures are taken here. The European Commission said only Spain, Portugal and Greece are performing more poorly, with Ireland's emissions likely to be almost 16 per cent off target by 2010.
Minister for the Environment Dick Roche rejected these projections and insisted that this State will comply with its Kyoto obligations. But this is no time for such saccharine-coated, hollow assurances. Admittedly, the greater use of renewable energy in electricity generation and of biofuels in the transport sector are among measures which should improve our performance. But the central thrust of the Government's approach is to buy its way out of the problem of compliance by purchasing credits for emissions from low-discharge countries. Indeed, it was only in July that it got around to releasing a discussion document on the National Climate Change Strategy - six years after that strategy was published.
Mr Roche and his ministerial colleagues have delayed for long enough and must now demonstrate their commitment to addressing climate change. In the first instance, this should include a reversal of the short-sighted decision not to introduce a scheme of carbon taxes. The latter would have the merit of fairly applying the "polluter pays" principle. As Sir Nicholas's analysis shows, it is too late for words but not for action. What is needed is real political leadership. The stakes could not be higher.