A breach, but not broken. The IRA did kill Charles Bennett and did try to smuggle in guns from Florida, but the organisation's cessation is not disintegrating.
That was Mo Mowlam's view of the IRA ceasefire yesterday. It also serves as an analysis of the state of the political process generally: cracked but not shattered. But what odds the chances of the review now?
For unionists it was the mother of all fudges. For Dr Mowlam, the Irish Government, nationalists generally and Sinn Fein and the IRA in particular, it was the only means to keep the Belfast Agreement breathing.
The Northern Secretary in deciding that the IRA ceasefire had not collapsed was, as one observer put it, being shamelessly pragmatic. She has looked uncomfortable this past week, as well she might: questionable decisions had to be made, and some side was going to be offended.
Just as her credibility suffered when she met loyalist prisoners, including the multiple killer Michael Stone, in the Maze in January last year in order to save the loyalist ceasefire, so has her credibility been damaged by this action which seems designed to save the IRA ceasefire.
What she did yesterday is characteristic of the Northern Secretary. She was prepared to gamble then, and is prepared to gamble now. She survived her visit to the Maze. Whether she can emerge relatively unscathed after this exercise in, perhaps, necessary sophistry is a trickier question. She can expect a continued and sustained attack from pro- and anti-agreement unionists, the Tory party and the Tory press.
There was an expectation that Sinn Fein would be absolved by Dr Mowlam, but the IRA might have to do some minor penance - as in a temporary halt to prisoner releases. But there was no punishment for republicans, triggering the question: were Charles Bennett and principle totally expendable because the IRA had secretly issued a threat the British government could not ignore?
Dr Mowlam told The Irish Times there was no contact between either her or her officials and the IRA, either directly or indirectly, that prompted her to let republicans off the hook. And neither did Mr Martin McGuinness's warning last weekend that Sinn Fein might boycott the review if the IRA was penalised force her to her adjudication.
Republican sources, however, were sure that if no contact were made that she knew the price that would be paid for stamping on the prisoners. IRA prisoner releases were tied to the ceasefire and therefore any sanction against the inmates in the Maze could jeopardise the cessation, the sources indicated.
One senior republican was in no doubt about the logic behind her decision. "I don't think the base would have tolerated it, and Mo would have known that," he said yesterday. By "base" he said he meant the IRA.
When Dr Mowlam warned that she had come "very close" to declaring the IRA ceasefire over she sounded rather like the schoolyard victim who safely away from the bully tells him with mock bravery that he'll get his comeuppance soon.
Dr Mowlam also sounded on shaky ground when she cited the Northern Ireland (Sentences) Act, 1998, to support her judgment. An organisation that is not entitled to early prisoner releases, according to the Act, is "one that has not established or is not maintaining a complete and unequivocal ceasefire".
The Act further states that in determining an organisation that falls within the early release scheme she must take into account whether it "has ceased to be involved in any acts of violence or of preparation for violence". It would take some dissembling to contradict the view that the murder of Mr Bennett was an act of violence.
Nonetheless, for essentially pragmatic reasons Dr Mowlam was still prepared to give the IRA the benefit of the doubt, even if her decision seemed contrary to the stated rules. She seemed to be following the view of Mr McGuinness that this ceasefire is better than no ceasefire.
Unionists were predictably furious, although it will have provided her with some reassurance that the Ulster Unionist Party leader, Mr David Trimble, was considered in his response. He wanted sanctions against IRA prisoners, but indicated he is still prepared to deal directly with Sinn Fein in the review starting September 6th.
"The challenge here for the republican movement is for them to demonstrate clearly to the people of Northern Ireland and elsewhere that they have left violence behind. I see that as a difficult challenge in the present circumstances," said Mr Trimble. A very moderate position in the circumstances.
That partly derives from the strategy of the party's security spokesman, Mr Ken Maginnis, who has argued consistently in the past week that tactically and in the general interests of unionism it is best to have Sinn Fein in the review. That nonetheless did not stop Mr Maginnis yesterday calling for Dr Mowlam's resignation.
While Mr Maginnis and Mr Trimble appear conscious of the Realpolitik, that may not apply to the general unionist community which would have a less complex view of what a cessation is.
Her decision provides additional ammunition for the No camp, and gives further jitters to those in Mr Trimble's Assembly party who find it difficult to resist the pressure from the Rev Ian Paisley and Mr Robert McCartney to switch sides. Violence pays and republicans can literally get away with murder, was the consistent argument from anti-agreement unionists yesterday.
The line from the DUP, the UK Unionist Party and the many anti-agreement politicians within the UUP was that by Dr Mowlam's definition the IRA has carte blanche to kill alleged informers or alleged drug-dealers, or people within its "own tribe" whom it didn't like and it still wouldn't be in breach of its ceasefire.
But, in favour of Mr Trimble's and Mr Maginnis's strategy, it certainly strengthens their argument for IRA decommissioning. When Mr George Mitchell gets down to business on Monday week with all the pro-agreement parties it's fair to assume the first UUP item for discussion will be: sham ceasefires and the absolute necessity for paramilitaries to hand over their arsenals.
There's more than a week to the start of the review and if, to paraphrase the former British prime minister Harold MacMillan, "events" between then and now don't further propel politics into a deeper state of crisis the political climate may slightly improve.
Dr Mowlam's ceasefire reasoning won't have been forgotten, but the emphasis may be back on politics. Dr Mowlam took an enormous risk to save the Belfast Agreement and keep Sinn Fein in the process. She must be wondering will the IRA and Sinn Fein repay that courtesy by modifying its stance on weapons.