Mixed feelings in Moscow over Obama’s diplomatic initiative with Cuba

There is certain to have been a degree of ambivalence, albeit largely unstated, in Moscow over the announcement that President Obama is restoring diplomatic relations with Russia's old ally and once ideological soulmate Cuba after 55 years of bitter division. The sudden rapprochement is reported to have come as much of a surprise to the Kremlin as it did to the irate ultra-conservatives of the Cuban-American community.

For years the Russians have publicly deplored the diplomatic boycott and trade embargo as a bullying relic of the Cold War, but the island's isolation has been the cornerstone of their political embrace and the prospect of a weakening of that relationship and possible eventual loss of a strategic foothold just off the US coast will not have pleased Vladimir Putin.

"My understanding is that the official reaction was neutral-positive," Sergei A Karaganov, a prominent Moscow-based political scientist, told the New York Times. "One could only applaud Mr Obama, whether you like him or not," Karaganov added, reportedly with a chuckle.

Mr Putin's hawkish deputy prime minister, Dmitri Rogozin, was less enthusiastic about US intentions and Cuba's prospects. "Now they will suffocate them in their embrace," he said on Twitter during a tour through Latin America last week where he was negotiating economic and weapons contracts in Brazil, Venezuela and other countries. He stopped off in Cuba last weekend and will no doubt have reminded President Raul Castro in no uncertain terms of the $32 billion of Cuba's Soviet-era debt that Putin wrote off this year.

Cuba must remember on which side its bread is buttered, he will have warned; a little rapprochement is no bad thing, but Havana must remember who its real friends are.

Changed times

Times have changed, however. The reality is that the level of Russian subsidies to Cuba has dramatically declined since the collapse of the Soviet Union. (They have been replaced by supplies of cheap Venezuelan oil – 100,000 barrels a day – although the slump in oil prices and Venezuela’s economic crisis may put them in jeopardy).

Putin, obsessed by his perception of tightening western encirclement, does not take kindly to old allies – a better description of the unequal relationships might be “client states” – cultivating the western powers. As he made plain in Ukraine over its turning to the EU, Russia’s central strategic objective remains the defence of Cold War spheres of influence.

The polite words of encouragement from Moscow over the US decision were accompanied by a pointed rider. "It is characteristic that the president of the United States admitted the lack of results of many years of attempts to 'isolate' Cuba," the foreign ministry said in its 154-word statement. "It remains to hope that Washington will soon recognise the fruitlessness of the similar pressure of sanctions on other countries."

Russia is hurting

That might sound a bit rich from a country whose currency was in free fall largely as a result of the fall in oil prices but, in part at least, because of western sanctions over Ukraine. Russia is hurting.

And yet, as some western critics of the sanctions regime point out, apart from also hurting western commercial interests, the public standing of Russia's president remains remarkably high. Just as, arguably, the main effect on Cuba of its enforced isolation, apart from crippling the economy and making the lives of ordinary people miserable, was to consolidate the power of the Cuban Communist Party and of the enduring real popularity of Fidel Castro and brother Raul. Mother Russia against the world is a powerful rallying cry.

Obama is gambling that increased personal links and gradual exposure to US consumerism – although much of the trade embargo will remain in place, courtesy of the Republican-dominated Congress – will do more to break Cubans’ ideological allegiances than isolation did.

But economic sanctions, however ineffective, have the political virtue of at least being seen to do something – masterly inactivity never won votes and can be portrayed by your political opponents as appeasement. Or toothlessness – with comprehensive sanctions already in place against North Korea, the US is finding itself at a loss to come up with further non-military instruments of coercion against the regime over its Sony hacking.

So sanctions will remain a crucial part of the diplomatic armoury, not least because in Russia’s case there are hints that they may be contributing to softening Putin’s stance in Ukraine. There are tentative reports that despite continuing bluster he is willing to encourage pro-Russian separatists to resume talks. with Kiev and the international community.

psmyth@irishtimes.com