There have been several occasions on which the Yugoslav regime has indirectly admitted that it is in trouble following Sunday's presidential election. Press conferences to announce victory have been postponed. The Federal Election Commission, charged with producing a favourable result, has failed to produce verified tallies. Unofficial returns given by supporters of Mr Slobodan Milosevic have contradicted each other.
At one point it was claimed that Mr Milosevic had gained more than 50 per cent of the votes cast, a figure which would have permitted him to be elected on the first count. Later the Milosevic faction revised this to 45 percent and this in itself was a remarkable admission in that it conveyed a message from his own people that the Yugoslav President would have to go to the polls a second time.
The regime had never before come so close to a concession of defeat despite the obvious fact that Mr Milosevic had lost the confidence of his people. He had lost this confidence long before NATO's bombing campaign and a considerable time before he insinuated himself into the presidency of Yugoslavia with the help of a supine parliament. Serbs were on the streets of Belgrade four years ago demanding his resignation but he outfoxed and divided the opposition with a scorn for democracy worthy of a politician committed to despotism.
He will undoubtedly attempt to do the same again but the opportunities open to him in this regard are considerably narrower than heretofore. It should not be ignored, however, that certain unsavoury options remain open. Mr Milosevic re-wrote the constitution to allow him stay in power for almost a year following the current election. In the course of that period of time he would appear within his rights to re-write the constitution once again. Few would be surprised should he attempt to do so.
The clear message from the weekend poll, however, is that he has less support than ever from the Yugoslav people. Whatever about his dwindling popularity in Serbia, he has virtually none in the pro-western republic of Montenegro, the increasingly reluctant junior partner in the federation. Many observers feel that out of revenge Mr Milosevic might launch a military clampdown on Montenegro. There are precedents for this. He was prepared to fight to the last drop of other people's blood in Bosnia and in Kosovo in order to heighten nationalist feeling for his own political benefit.
Every time he has been cornered he has shown an ability to strike back extremely effectively. Now he has been cornered as never before and may be tempted to pursue a ruthless and irresponsible policy in reply. A case has been put that in order to avoid such potentially dreadful consequences he should be given a way out by the West. Some countries completely opposed to his policies and his personal actions have offered him asylum should this help in relieving Yugoslavia from his rule.
The scenario is a tempting one even though its morality may be dubious. The picture of an elderly ex-dictator ending his days in isolation on a farmstead on the African veldt while Serbia enjoys prosperity and a return to the democratic fold, has definite attractions. It should be given consideration, however, only if all other options fail. Mr Milosevic has, after all, some very serious questions to answer in the Hague where he stands indicted of war crimes.