Silvio Berlusconi and his conservative Forza Italia party played a long, devious game in 2005 when they forced through a partisan electoral law before going to the polls.
They calculated that the complex measure, combining proportional representation with regional majority bonuses and replacing a much more majoritarian system, could minimise their expected losses in the 2006 elections and maximise the difficulties facing their opponents if they formed a government.
Despite their denunciation of this law the 20-month- old centre-left nine-party government headed by Romano Prodi failed to amend it. Last month it fell when a small Catholic party defected in the senate, where he then lost a vote of confidence. In recent days these same centre-left parties scrambled to form an interim administration with the express purpose of changing the electoral law ahead of fresh elections, by raising the threshold for parties to enter parliament. But Mr Berlusconi refused to co-operate, ensuring that the senate speaker charged with assembling a coalition did not succeed. That has left President Giorgio Napolitano with no option but to call elections under the existing law, probably in April, as opinion polls predict a likely victory for a Forza Italia-led coalition.
This would bring Mr Berlusconi back to power for a third time. As Italy's richest man, who owns its three largest private television stations and biggest publisher, he has a proven record of putting his private interests in the foreground. He is campaigning on a platform of reduced taxation and tackling crime; but although he had one of the longest terms in office of any postwar Italian government from 2001-2006, he too failed to deliver on much needed public sector, educational and economic reforms despite making some headway on labour markets and pensions.
Italy's structural problems badly need tackling by a stable and durable government not beholden to smaller parties or private interests. It is probably too much to expect a grand coalition from this election, since it would not be possible under Mr Berlusconi or Mr Prodi's assumed successor Walter Veltroni, the mayor of Rome. While the election law also badly needs reform, it is hardly altogether responsible for the political impasse in which the country finds itself. Italy is split down the middle politically, but is still saddled with a left-right division which cannot deliver effective change. Mr Prodi failed to push his own programme of reforms forward because of his fruitless search for consensus, notably in the public sector and on income inequalities.