McCreevy's economic analysis does not allay EU fears of overheating economy

The fundamental difference between Charlie McCreevy and his EU finance minister colleagues over their criticism on his budgetary…

The fundamental difference between Charlie McCreevy and his EU finance minister colleagues over their criticism on his budgetary policy centred on whether Mr McCreevy's Budget was, in the EU's words, "pro-cyclical" and whether the Irish economy is "overheating".

In his reply to the EU Commission recommendation, Mr McCreevy points to Ireland's large and prudent budget surpluses and mentions its measures to increase labour supply and productivity. He also claims that the Commission has got its figures wrong, and that the 2001 Budget is a bit less expansionary than the Commission thinks.

But he does not tackle the fundamental claims made by his colleagues, namely, that his Budget is pro-cyclical and the economy is overheating.

These are judgments about economic policy and are wide open to be controverted. Mr McCreevy does not controvert them. He simply ignores them.

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Perhaps he believes that it is wrong to think in terms of economic cycles any more. Perhaps he believes that the cyclical theory of economics is outdated or that Ireland, as part of the "new" economy, has freed itself from its shackles.

It is indeed arguable that technological advance is now such that supply constraints are less than they were, and that market knowledge has so improved that over-investment is not likely to take place any more. If this is true, then economic cycles might indeed be a thing of the past as far as Ireland is concerned. But Mr McCreevy has not made any such contention.

If he had done so he might have got a better hearing because he would then have been dealing with the real issue.

But if he did make such a contention he would have had to deal with the known fact that personal borrowing levels in Ireland are now at an unprecedentedly high level relative to personal incomes.

He would also have had to deal with the fact that recent rates of house-price increase have been higher than in any other country which has escaped a subsequent house-price collapse.

It may well be that the housing demand and supply in Ireland will match each other in the near future, and that the slump will be avoided. That could have been put forward by Mr McCreevy if he had presented his EU colleagues with a detailed structural analysis of the Irish housing market to back up his contention. He did not do so.

Apart from house prices, the other factor that the EU argues is contributing to the overheating of the Irish economy is what it calls "the tightness of the labour market". The Commission believes that further tax cuts will be inflationary because they will not tempt sufficient extra people out to work.

They believe that the effect of the tax cut will simply be to generate extra demand that will drive up wages unsustainably. The Minister could have countered this argument by an analysis of the likely dynamics of the Irish labour market over the next three or four years, showing that supply will meet demand. He did not do so.

To have done so he would have had to deal with his Government's own admission that it will have to bring in up to 300,000 immigrants to meet foreseeable labour demand. He would have had to say where these immigrants would be housed, given the existing housing shortage.

The overheating could be avoided if the long-term unemployed, retired people and women in the home were to provide a pool of extra workers, willing to come out to work in response to Mr McCreevy's tax cuts, without demanding wage increases.

But the traffic and lifestyle hassle in getting to work may discourage many from making the effort. If they fail to respond, the result of the tax stimulus will be overheating.

Again Mr McCreevy has not presented his arguments on this topic in a convincing way.

The fundamental problem is that the Minister for Finance has not presented a convincing microeconomic rebuttal of the European Commission's macroeconomic concerns.

He has not analysed the housing market. He has not analysed the labour market. He has not analysed Irish demography. He has simply argued about the macroeconomic figures, as if they told the whole story.

I do not believe that the European Commission has any interest in isolating Ireland. Jealousy has nothing to do with it. The EU is launching a truly revolutionary project, a new currency. It must err on the side of caution to maintain confidence. It must demonstrate that it is being prudent.

If Mr McCreevy fails to provide it with convincing micro-economic analysis of the Irish economy to show that it is not overheating, then neither he, nor the economic commentators who support him, should be surprised to find themselves isolated in Europe.

John Bruton TD is the former leader of the Fine Gael party