The rise of South Africa's 'Teflon politician' Jacob Zuma as leader of the African National Congress may herald its breakup, writes William Gumede.
Jacob Zuma, the "Teflon politician" of South Africa, has performed one of the most stunning comebacks in the country's history. Despite having been sacked by Thabo Mbeki in 2005 for alleged corruption, remaining the target of a corruption investigation, and having faced accusations of rape, he has swept to the leadership of the ruling African National Congress, defeating the incumbent President Mbeki.
Zuma's challenge is to keep the deeply divided ANC together, while delivering on his promises to a disparate and expectant support base. As if this were not enough, he will have to convince South Africa's anxious establishment - black and white - that his Lazarus-like rise does not herald the apocalypse. What is obvious from the fractious party conference is that Africa's oldest and most respected liberation movement is split into two camps. Even Nelson Mandela, who did not attend, felt compelled to send a message to delegates saying he was ashamed of the infighting in the movement, for whose ideals he went to prison for 27 years.
How, then, did Zuma make it to the top? His success was born largely of ANC grassroots supporters' belief that Mbeki has failed to translate the country's remarkable economic success into prosperity for the black population. Two weeks before the ANC conference, Mbeki angrily denounced a study saying poverty has doubled among the poorest since 1996.
He has rebuffed demands by party activists (demands supported, indeed, by the white opposition parties) for improved income support. Zuma has adroitly used the grassroots calls for change to his advantage, selling himself as a pro-poor, sympathetic, man-of-the-people candidate, in contrast to the wooden Mbeki. The glue that holds Zuma's coalition within the ANC together, however, is dislike for Mbeki. Unable to find someone among their own ranks with the stature to lead the ANC, they have settled on Zuma as long as he gives voice to their proposals. Before the ANC conference, key elements within the Zuma camp resolved to ballot members on a breakaway from the ANC in the event of a Zuma loss.
Although the country won't plunge into anarchy, the chances are that Zuma's ascendancy to the presidency will herald a period of political uncertainty. Zuma's victory means that the period between now and the likely 2009 general election, when Mbeki's two-term presidency ends, will be one of heightened tensions between a lame duck Mbeki and a resurgent party leader in Zuma. Although Zuma has indicated that he will not seek a vote of no-confidence in Mbeki to trigger an early election, many of his supporters on the ANC's left will continue to demand that he do so.
As if that were not enough, South Africa could yet confront the unprecedented spectacle of the ruling party leader spending time in court fighting off corruption, fraud and bribery charges. Prosecutors indicated in the lead-up to the conference that they have more evidence against Zuma in a controversial multi-billion rand arms deal.
Many argue that Zuma offers a critical conduit for the poor's grievances. These people are going to be disappointed. The ragbag collection of groups that back Zuma ranges from socialists and trade unionists to supporters of virginity testing and the death penalty. Dashed expectations may be the catalyst for a breakup of the ANC - a breakup which can only be good for democracy.
For all its shortcomings, the process completed this week has been ultimately constructive. The Achilles' heel of most African liberation movements has been their failure to have competitive elections, either out of fear of division, or deference to the sitting leader.
Importantly, both these stifling taboos have now been broken. Though insufficient and stifled, the limited democratic space the election opened is a step forward. Zuma will almost certainly face tougher scrutiny and more urgent demands to deliver. And, critically, a precedent has been set: grassroots members can vote out unresponsive leaders. - (Guardian service)
William Gumede is the author of Thabo Mbeki and the Battle for the Soul of the ANCwhich has just been published