Mr Nelson Mandela's last presidential speech to the African National Congress in Mafiking yesterday struck a sharp note of criticism against a host of well-defined opponents: white non-co-operation with his new government, media still controlled by them and the refusal by former leaders of the apartheid system to appear before the Truth and Reconciliation Commission. They were trying to weaken the ANC and were willing to use the growth of crime in order to do so, he claimed. It was a message geared very specifically to the 3,000 delegates who will select his successor rather than a final statement of his policies or reflections on his remarkable achievements in and out of office. The greatest of these has been to negotiate and oversee the transition from apartheid to democracy. The fears he expressed yesterday about its vulnerability to sabotage are no doubt real; but measured against the strength of his government they seem relatively distant compared to some of the other difficulties it faces in delivering on its promises to increase jobs and investment and to provide health, housing, education and basic infrastructural facilities to the majority of ANC supporters. This week the ANC will select Mr Thabo Mbeki as Mr Mandela's successor as party president and elect a new leadership to run the governing party. Mr Mbeki's policy profile is well known to reflect a continuity of policy, particularly in economic affairs, where he has been a firm supporter of the government's growth, employment and redistribution strategy. As its name implies, it depends on a growth rate of 6 per cent, if the resources necessary to provide jobs and services are to be accumulated. Current performance is about half that, so that Mr Mbeki will have to assume even more of the reins of power and the difficult decisions involved after this conference in the period between now and the parliamentary elections in 1999 when Mr Mandela will finally retire.
His departure confirms the health of South African democracy, as well as being the occasion for reflection on his many achievements. He bequeaths an ANC and a country still struggling to come to terms with normal politics and having to reconcile conflicting tendencies within its own organisation. There are many critics who disagree with the economic strategy on the grounds that it has produced precious few jobs, inadequate growth and investment and too little redistribution. Mr Mandela has had to balance this increasingly orthodox policy against those in the allied South African Communist Party and congress of trade unions who resist its fiscal disciplines. Mr Mbeki will rapidly find his options narrowing if he continues to do so. But he is a skilled and ruthless politician who enjoys the confidence of business and the international community. He will have to demonstrate that he can tackle the issues identified yesterday in President Mandela's speech, including shortcomings in administration, a culture of lawlessness and low tax discipline, all of which are likely to weigh down increasingly on the government if they are not addressed. This week will show whether he is given the authority to do so and can fashion the ANC into a more effective party of government.