Kosovo is once again at the centre of international affairs following yesterday's decision by the European Union to send an administrative and police force there ahead of any declaration of independence from Serbia next year.
In parallel EU leaders offered Serbia a fast track towards candidate membership if certain conditions are fulfilled. The summary dismissal of these moves by Serbia's prime minister foreshadows a dangerous period of severe tension in the Balkan region and possibly beyond it over the next few months.
The EU summit statement in Brussels did not specifically endorse independence for Kosovo. But effectively that is the central issue. Several EU member states still want to see whether a United Nations Security Council resolution can be reached endorsing independence. That looks highly unlikely, given Russia's repeated rejection of it and the exhaustive failure of negotiations on the matter over the last six months.
Hashim Thaci's victory in the recent Kosovo parliamentary elections commits him to make a declaration of independence soon, irrespective of Serb attitudes. Even if the EU plays for some delay it is not expected to extend much beyond February's presidential elections in Serbia. Behind the offer of a fast track for EU membership there lies a hope that more moderate parties and voters there can face up to the inevitability of Kosovo independence - a fact that French president Nicolas Sarkozy spelled out bluntly after the summit yesterday. In the light of the ultra-nationalist victory in Serbia's recent parliamentary elections and their capacity to present this as an existential threat during a political campaign that looks a forlorn hope.
The EU is facing a real foreign policy crisis on Kosovo. There is no realistic alternative to independence, given the balance of forces there and the repeated expressions of political will for that objective.The EU's Ahtisaari plan for independence insists on strong guarantees for minority representation in the Kosovo assembly and a high level of autonomy for the 100,000 Serb community who make up about 10 per cent of the population.
The task will be to ensure the special EU force is deployed effectively, alongside the existing Nato force there, and to continue diplomatic efforts for a way through. That must include assurances for minority rights and efforts to head off violence against Serbs, or a new build up of military threats from Serbia. Russia has made the Kosovo issue a test case in its new assertive foreign policy. Reaching a new understanding with its leaders will have to be a central part of the EU's strategy.