Kenny runs cute campaign as finish line nears

Consistent poll results suggest race outcome is predetermined at this stage bar a major upset

FOLLOWING THE hectic intensity of the weeks immediately prior to the dissolution of the Dáil, the election campaign itself may actually turn out to be quite dull.

Notwithstanding the extraordinary context in which the campaign is raging, the outcomes appear to be largely predetermined.

In the first three days of the campaign proper, we have had opinion polls from three different polling agencies.

Although these have given somewhat divergent results, their central findings are consistent. At the outset of the campaign, Fine Gael is in the early to mid-30s, Labour is in the mid-20s, Fianna Fáil is stuck in the mid- to high-teens, and Sinn Féin and Independents are on the rise.

Micheál Martin’s elevation to the Fianna Fáil leadership has stabilised the party’s support level in the mid-teens but may have done no more than that. Even those close to him realise the novelty value of a new face on posters will fade, and fade even faster in an election environment.

He has, however, brought a sense of relief to the party, taking its campaign by the scruff of the neck and giving it a sense of competent presentation. With his new front bench he got the optics rights, suggesting Fianna Fáil will be open to new, younger and more female voices.

Cumulatively, his first steps as leader may mean more voters will be prepared to give Fianna Fáil a second look – but probably after the election and not in it.

Meanwhile, Martin’s efforts to address the candidate strategy difficulties he inherited have met with only limited success. He managed to persuade Noel O’Flynn to retire in Cork North Central and provoked the retirement of John Cregan in Limerick West, making it easier for Fianna Fáil to hold one seat in each constituency.

This was more than offset, however, by two negative developments outside Martin’s control. Niall Blaney’s decision not to contest in Donegal North East for personal reasons and Brian Cowen’s retirement in Laois-Offaly leave another two constituencies where the party has lost a standard-bearer.

The resignation of the party’s other 2007 candidate in that constituency John Foley adds further to the party’s woes. Foley is the most recent of those who polled strongly in 2007 to jump ship and become an Independent. There is a real possibility that Foley in Laois-Offaly, Tom Fleming in Kerry South, Mattie McGrath in Tipperary South, Joe Behan in Wicklow, James Breen in Clare and maybe even Michael Healy-Rae in Kerry South could form a curious cohort of Fianna Fáil “gene-pool” Independents in the next Dáil.

Even allowing for a few more resignations before nominations close, there will be at least seven three-seaters and seven four-seaters where Fianna Fáil is running more than one candidate but likely to poll less than one quota.

Fine Gael has had a good start to the campaign with the only hiccup coming at the end of its first press conference when they annoyed the hacks by cutting the questions short. While such things play big in the media bubble, they have little public impact.

This was a good week for the party because the three polls again put them at – or well above – 30 per cent, where they have hovered in all national polls since last October. As importantly, the polls again show the gap between them and Labour currently running to at least 10 per cent.

Meanwhile, Enda Kenny is doing the bare minimum of media appearances. He and his strategists know live wide-ranging interviews are not his strong point and many in Fianna Fáil and Labour hope he will be exposed or implode under media pressure. Indeed, Micheál Martin’s multiple-debate proposal stems from a feeling in FF that these would present a chance to access public apprehension about Kenny’s capacity to do the job of taoiseach.

Much as his opponents may wish for it, Kenny will not be the game-changer in this campaign. He has been Fine Gael leader for more than nine and a half years. Unlike all his opponents, bar Gerry Adams, Kenny has previously led his party through an election campaign. He is also the only current leader to have previously participated in a leaders’ election debate.

The public knows Kenny at this stage; a majority expresses dissatisfaction with him in polls, but in the same polls Fine Gael does well. The Kenny factor, such as it is, is already built into the Fine Gael share price. Whatever their apprehensions about him, voters are content to support Fine Gael in larger numbers than they have for decades. That is unlikely to change in the next three weeks.

In the dark, cold and windy days of February, there are limitations to the extent which the on-the-ground canvass effort, outdoor marketing campaigns or even leaders’ tours can shape the direction of this campaign.

The only potential game-changer or circuit-breaker in the next three weeks would be some iconic television moment or dramatic news story. A series of television debates which could have made compulsive viewing a couple of nights each week for three weeks might have done so but that will not happen now.

Fine Gael has wisely decided to let the clock run down on any proposal for such a series, although it looks like Kenny will have to consent to at least two debates.

At this point, it would appear that the order of the various runners in this race is unlikely to change over the remaining three laps.