There is evidence of Fianna Fáil voters rallying to support an embattled Taoiseach and Government in the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll, but that bounce is not on the scale of last October and may not halt the impetus towards the formation of an alternative coalition. A significant change has occurred. A majority of people who favour the election of a Fine Gael/Labour Party/Green Party government now believe such an outcome is possible, to the detriment of Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats.
The shift in public perception about the viability of an alternative government may be of central importance in the final weeks of the campaign. It is likely to encourage Fine Gael and the Labour Party to concentrate on promoting their distinctive, family-friendly policies while criticising Government failures, wasteful spending and inadequate public services.
Fianna Fáil will take some comfort from an increase in party support and a 4 percentage point rise in Government satisfaction rating at a time when party leader Bertie Ahern is under enormous pressure in relation to his personal finances. A marginal increase in personal support, however, does not disguise the fact that a preponderance of voters believe Mr Ahern has more questions to answer and should make a statement in advance of the election. While a majority believe this is a serious election campaign issue, however, rural and middle- class voters disagree.
There will be disappointment in Fine Gael over its slippage from last month's exceptionally high support level. But that setback has been balanced by a positive re-evaluation of the leadership qualities of Enda Kenny by the electorate and his highest-ever public satisfaction rating. A resurgence in support for the Labour Party and its leader Pat Rabbitte - particularly in Dublin - will steady the nerves of those party activists who worried about being swamped by a rampant Fine Gael. Support for the Green Party and Sinn Féin has remained static while the PDs, despite their call for accountability last weekend, drifted downwards.
The Government's continuing unpopularity in Dublin, where nearly two-thirds of voters are dissatisfied, will be a matter of particular concern to Fianna Fáil. Dublin is the cockpit of the election and, if the party is to form the nucleus of another coalition government, it must do well in the capital. As things stand, Fianna Fáil and the PDs command 38 per cent of voter support, compared to 46 per cent for a Fine Gael/Labour/Green Party alternative. On those figures, a change in government is inevitable.
The composition of a new coalition is still unclear. It will be influenced by the Taoiseach's statement about his finances and, equally perhaps, by the television debate between Mr Kenny and Mr Ahern. Support for an alternative government has grown as satisfaction with the existing one has risen. This election will go down to the wire.