OPINION/Mark BrennockPat Rabbitte said last week that it was difficult to predict what the configuration of Irish politics would be in three years' time. He can say that again.
Last March it was difficult to predict what the configuration of Irish politics would be just three months later.
The Government was the first re-elected since 1969; Fine Gael suffered its worst ever electoral reverse; Labour failed to make any of its much predicted advances as alternative forces such as the Green Party, Sinn Féin and others grew in strength and confidence.
A few months later again the Government was cutting spending, struggling to convince the people that it had not deceived them.
Fine Gael and Labour were trying to find their feet again under new leadership. In the Dáil, the alternative voices were causing trouble and gaining public notice.
The effort to identify and then catch the public mood now continues into 2003, a political year likely to produce more real politics than has been seen for some time.
The circumstances of the past few years have allowed choices in relation to the distribution of wealth, Northern Ireland and the future of the European Union to be avoided.
However, next year will produce situations in which Government and Opposition politicians will have to take coherent positions on important issues and be able to stand over them.
The most obvious area is that of taxation and spending.
During the boom, those on the political right who warned against the relaxation of control on public spending found it difficult to be heard as the Exchequer produced extraordinary surpluses each year despite the upward spiral of Government spending.
Those on the left who warned that the annual reduction of the tax base would lead to poor public and social services were left crying wolf as public spending rose dramatically each year despite the sustained campaign of tax cutting.
But the ending of the period of record economic growth means that both arguments are back in business, waiting to be embraced by political forces.
The restricted Government spending planned for next year will hurt in many areas. Who is to say there won't be more horror stories from the health services as the Minister for Health, Mr Martin - under severe pressure from the Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy - struggles to control the costs of services for which there is ever increasing demand?
Hand wringing will not wash, so to speak. Politicians who want greater spending in order to improve creaking services will have to explain where they want the money to come from - or what they want to tax. While those resisting any increase in the tax take will have to explain what services they want to cut in order to retain the low business and personal tax regime.
It may appear far-fetched, but it seems that politicians will have to make their policy choices and stand over them.
In relation to Northern Ireland, the impending May Assembly elections pose difficult choices too. A plausible scenario at this stage is that those elections will make Sinn Féin and the DUP the predominant political forces in the unionist and nationalist constituencies.
If the Government sees DUP predominance as a bad thing, it knows the only way to avoid this is by giving Mr Trimble the opportunity to face the electorate having won a dramatic concession from the IRA.
However, the recently disclosed Department of Foreign Affairs briefing paper suggested what many unionists suspect: That the Government may be willing to see the divergence between public Sinn Féin utterances and private IRA activity continue, with the aim of ensuring that the more militant elements of Republicanism remain quiet.
This may emerge as the recipe for DUP victory.
The Government may therefore very shortly face a clear choice between confronting the Republican leadership with unpalatable demands, or sending Mr Trimble into an electoral battle he has every chance of losing.
Then there is Europe. The Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen is to make a major speech on Ireland's attitude to the European Union in mid-January. This follows a period in which the Minister Justice Michael McDowell has been fronting for the Government with cautionary speeches.
The Convention on the Future of Europe discussing future development of the EU is to finish its work in early Summer.
An Inter-Governmental Conference (IGC) of EU political leaders is expected to get underway in the autumn.
Up to now, the Government has been willing to allow Mr McDowell set the tone for its position.
By then, however, it will have to take a clear position on how much further it is willing to pool sovereignty in a variety of areas.
The IGC may clarify for the public which parties are enthusiastic about, and which are sceptical about, further EU integration.
Then there is the prospect of war with Iraq. The Government - and Opposition - may have to choose between siding with our political friends in London and Washington or taking a more critical and neutralist line.
The year 2003 is shaping up to be one in which politicians will have to give definition to their political positions.
Of course, the notion that this in turn will define the future configuration of Irish politics is to assume that people vote on the basis of policy.