Has Bertie passed his sell-by date?

There was a brief telephone exchange between Bertie Ahern and me during the course of the general election campaign which, in retrospect, I think is of some significance.

Not what was discussed in the course of that conversation, for that has been ventilated well since, but the fact that the conversation took place at all.

The background to the conversation is this.

Fianna Fáil held its manifesto launch at the Mansion House on Thursday, May 3rd. In the course of that press conference I asked Ahern a number of questions about his financial affairs.

Immediately after the press conference I interviewed him one-to-one for a radio programme I then presented on RTÉ. In the course of that interview I asked him about his retirement intentions, and he said then it was his intention to retire as leader of Fianna Fáil before the next election but to run right up to the election.

After the press conference I told RTÉ's News at One programme what Ahern had said in that interview, to be broadcast later that evening, in particular what I recalled Ahern saying about retirement.

About a half hour later I got a phone call from PJ Mara asking what was this about Bertie retiring. I told him what had happened. He said Bertie's recollection was somewhat different and went on to express concern that this issue might lead to the kind of turmoil that occurred in the UK with Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. (Incidentally, I had had a previous telephone conversation with PJ after that press conference earlier that morning, in the course of which PJ made some humorous remark about the questions concerning Bertie's finances - we then went on to talk about personal arrangements being made by PJ.)

He asked me to talk to Bertie, and put Bertie on the line. Bertie said he would not stand in the next election and insisted that was what he had said in the interview. I said that is more or less the same thing, for if he was not going to stand in the next election he was not going to lead Fianna Fáil into that election. He said this was indeed his intention. And that was that.

What I find curious about this conversation in retrospect is the concern there was in Fianna Fáil at the time about Bertie's remarks concerning his retirement intentions. This, rather that anything to do with his finances, was what was bothering PJ and Bertie after that press conference. But then later on Bertie became even more explicit about his retirement plans and has gone on to endorse Brian Cowen as his successor. What changed? My guess is as follows.

Fianna Fáil did not give a fiddler's about the money issue at the outset of the campaign, even though this was what was dominating the media coverage. Their polls were telling them it was not a factor and indeed RTÉ's exit poll confirmed this resoundingly, with 82 per cent of voters saying the money issue was either of no concern or actually had encouraged them to vote Fianna Fáil. What they were worried about at that stage was that the appeal of their greatest asset in the campaign, Bertie himself, would be diluted by an expectation he would not serve a full term and would leave halfway through.

But then things changed the following Sunday week, May 13th, when the PDs did a wobble over the money issue and Michael McDowell (remember him?) threatened to pull the plug on the Government. Then suddenly the money issue became of central concern. My understanding is there was a meeting of Fianna Fáil ministers that morning in the Treasury Buildings on Grand Canal Street, from where the Fianna Fáil election campaign was being run.

Present there were Brian Cowen, Micheál Martin and Séamus Brennan, along with PJ and Seán Dorgan, the Fianna Fáil general secretary. A scheduled press conference for 11 o'clock was cancelled for that morning and another scheduled for 3 o'clock that afternoon. There was an acceptance that things were now serious and that the Bertie money issue would have to be tackled head on. Bertie was telephoned and invited to join the meeting, which he did.

I do not know what transpired at that meeting. But what is obvious is that no longer was there any concern about how long Bertie would remain as Taoiseach; instead the money issue had to be got out of the way. Was there an implicit understanding that if Brian Cowen helped Bertie out of that mess, Bertie would step aside fairly soon and leave the way open for Cowen?

But precisely the apprehension that PJ Mara expressed that afternoon of May 3rd has now come to pass - the speculation will start in a year's time about how long Bertie will hold on for and this, inevitably, will force him to go well before the end of this Dáil's term. And it is also obvious that at some stage during the election campaign Bertie had to abandon his caution about retirement, and that abandonment occurred suspiciously around the time that the money issue threatened to become explosive.

Curious, that.