Early today, the people of India, the largest democracy in the world, will see a new Prime Minister sworn into office. The man chosen, Mr Inder Gujral, will be forgiven for not celebrating hastily however he is under instruction from the President to prove, tomorrow that he can carry a majority in parliaments' lower house, the Lok Sabha. Only after a confidence vote confirms him in office can he return to the tasks with which the United Front government had been dealing competently and confidently until the Conagress Party's petulance pulled the rug two weeks ago.
Congress has ruled India for most of its 50 years of independence but it is much diminished in comparison with the great days of Nehru and the Gandhis. It was turfed out of office 10 months ago when its share of the poll fell below 30 per cent for the first time. India's new government was put together by the 15 party United Front coalition, a fragile grouping which includes everything from committed free traders to diehard communists but, significantly, excludes the right wing Hindu extremist BJP party. The government received welcome but grudging parliamentary support from the Congress Party under its new leader Mr Sitaram Kesri.
The election result might have been expected to manifest much humble soul searching within Congress on where it had gone wrong. Not a bit of it. Instead, Mr Kesri restrained himself for just 10 months before voting down the government in a naked gamble to return Congress to power and put himself in the Prime Minister's Office.
Mr Kesri's gamble failed dismally. He assumed wrongly, that some of the factions which make up the United Front and which were formally part of Congress, would return to the fold. Sensing the danger that a stalemate would only give rise to fresh elections where Congress would be thumped and the BJP would benefit Mr Kesri climbed down and agreed that another United Front government with a new Prime Minister would get Congress support. The popular Prime Minister, Mr Deve Gowda, duly stood down to be replaced by his foreign minister, Mr Gujral. The new Prime Minister has promised that he will set up a co-ordination committee so that the Congress Party will feel more involved in the government's programme. In his search for excuses Mr Kesri complained that the government had marginalised Congress.
Hopefully, Mr Gujral will continue the federal probe into the huge wealth of Mr Kesri which may have prompted the latter to make his futile play for power. Mr Gujral can be expected to maintain the drive for better relations with India's neighbours and of equal importance, to push through the liberalising Budget designed to cut taxes and free up the economy. Both strategies had been agreed in detail with the Congress Party. There is some expectation now that Congress may dump Mr Kesri and return to responsible politics while it still has a base on which to build.