Much of the talk among the political chattering classes in the United States these days is about the "Gore factor", that is, the impact the former vice-president Al Gore could have on the forthcoming presidential election, writes Noel Whelan.
This week Gore returned to Capitol Hill as a celebrity advocate calling on Congress to adopt radical new laws to address climate change. Gore has become one of the hottest political and media tickets in the US following the phenomenal success of his Oscar-winning documentary film, An Inconvenient Truth.
One scenario being mooted is that Gore could be enticed into the presidential race before next spring's Democratic primaries, by which time current leading contenders like Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama may have fizzled out or worn each other out.
There is also some chatter on this side of the Atlantic about the impact the "Gore factor" is likely to have on our election. Thousands went to watch Gore's film when it played on Irish cinema screens last autumn and many more will see it on DVD before election day. It makes powerful viewing because Gore manages to communicate the extent and nature of the shift in global climate patterns in a dramatic way, as well as identifying the radical policies necessary to address the problem.
In part because of Gore's advocacy, climate change and the related energy and environmental issues have been prominent in the media in recent months. That has created a near-perfect backdrop for the Green Party's election effort here in Ireland.
As well as the Gore phenomenon, there has been considerable overspill from the rising significance of energy and environmental issues in the British political system, where David Cameron and Gordon Brown are already trying to outflank each other with more radical green initiatives.
Last November, the head of the British government economics service, Sir Nicholas Stern, published a report on the economic costs of climate change, the impact of which resonated worldwide. Last week British environment secretary David Miliband published a Bill which will stitch targets for reductions in greenhouse gases in England and Wales into statute.
Coverage of all these developments is contributing to dragging what were once fringe issues into the centre stage of political debate. The success of Government-funded public awareness campaigns like the "Power of One" and the increasing focus on recycling in households are also playing into this mix.
Cumulatively, the coverage of the Green Party's primary issues is having an impact and it goes a long way to explaining the rise in the party's support, reflected in recently published opinion polls. The party itself is getting better at communication and managing its message (although some of its photo calls are still cringe-making).
The party is also better organised and better resourced. It has set out a distinctive platform on a range of policy issues which, although not attractive to everybody, is both sophisticated and comprehensive.
The background context also explains why most of the other political parties are anxious to talk up their commitment to changes in environmental and energy policies. These issues were the subject of an article by Bertie Ahern on this page yesterday. They will also feature prominently at the Fianna Fáil ardfheis in Citywest this weekend, and again when Fine Gael gathers at the same venue next weekend.
If there appears to be some incoherence in Fianna Fáil's stance towards the Green Party at present, then it is because the party's senior politicians are in disagreement about how to respond to the green surge. Some Fianna Fáil Ministers feel they should follow the McDowell approach, seeking to scare the middle classes about the Green Party's economic policies and to terrify rural dwellers about its agricultural proposals. Others argue for a more subtle response.
These latter Ministers - tuned into the rising concern about environmental and climate issues in middle-class suburbanised constituencies - argue that they should seek to outflank the Green Party on policy in these areas. They are also anxious to leave open the option of governing with the Greens if the numbers fall that way after the election.
The reality is that the Green Party and its policies are not the bogeyman to the middle class that they once were. Even the agricultural sector sees potential rather than threat in the less intensive, more environmentally friendly agriculture the Greens advocate, and they also see financial potential in the alternative crops for which renewable energy policies would create demand.
Incidentally, I didn't credit the Greens adequately for their contribution to female candidature in my column last week. They have, at this stage, selected 32 candidates for the election and eight of these are female. I wrongly included them with the other parties who have candidate line-ups which are between 16 per cent and 18 per cent female. In fact, the Greens deserve acknowledgment with the Progressive Democrats for having a quarter of their candidates who are female.
The Greens may not sustain their current surge. They may have peaked too soon and the likely election date appears to have been pushed out further by the Taoiseach's remarks this week.
However, if they do sustain it, or indeed if a "Green gallop" akin to Labour's 1992 "Springtide", takes hold in the weeks before polling day, then the party's prospects in various constituencies will have to be revisited.
As of now, the six sitting TDs appear safe. The recent rise in the party's support, together with its capacity to attract transfers from all sides, means it is set to be in contention for gains in a handful of other constituencies. If the party's support rises even further, then its sitting TDs and some of the new candidates will not be waiting on transfers, but will be winning Dáil seats comfortably - maybe even topping the poll. If that scenario comes to pass, then the Greens will have good reason to thank Al Gore.