They are under starter's orders and the main Opposition parties are on a hiding to nothing. These are the surprising findings of today's Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll which show that the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and Fianna Fáil are well poised to form the next coalition government and Fine Gael and Labour are not at the races. The voters, it seems, are more interested in electing an alternative opposition than an alternative government at this time.
The Taoiseach can be well pleased with the way he has positioned his party in the run-up to the general election. His personal popularity rating is 68 per cent, up four percentage points since last May. The level of support for Fianna Fáil is at an uninspiring 41 per cent (down one point) were it not for the poll findings for competing opposition parties. The Government's satisfaction rating has dropped by 10 points. What is remarkable, in all of the prevailing circumstances, however, is that a Fianna Fáil-led government is favoured by 57 per cent of those expressing an opinion.
The findings will come as a blow to the Fine Gael leader, Mr Noonan, and his party as they strive to present an alternative coalition government. The poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday, just after the announcement of the tax-credits promise to Eircom shareholders. Mr Noonan's own satisfaction rating has dropped from 37 per cent to 31 per cent . It is now six points lower than that of his predecessor, Mr John Bruton, when he was ousted from the leadership. The party's support has also decreased by three points to 21 per cent and its core vote is worryingly low in Dublin. Less than one-third of voters - 31 per cent - want a Fine Gael-led coaliton.
Both Mr Quinn and the Labour Party also fare badly. Mr Quinn's personal rating is 41 per cent, the lowest since he became leader. The party's support has dipped to 11 per cent with a 9 per cent core vote in Dublin. The finding that 47 per cent of those expressing an opinion opt for a government including the Labour Party must be tempered by the fact that the party could figure in three combinations with Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael.
The Progressive Democrats will also be disappointed with the poll since it was conducted in the days when Mr Tom Parlon, former IFA leader, and Attorney General, Mr Michael McDowell, declared as high-profile candidates. The drop in the Tánaiste's rating by five percentage points to 54 per cent undoubtedly reflects displeasure with her use of a State aircraft to fly to a friend's off-licence. The party's support has remained static at 3 per cent.
The most instructive finding of the poll, however, is the change in the balance of the smaller Opposition parties. Sinn Féin is the only party to increase its support - from 5 per cent to 8 per cent. The Green Party's support is a solid 5 per cent. And the category of Others, which would include Independents, has increased support from 9 per cent to 11 per cent.
Today's opinion poll might suggest that the election is over before it has started. It would be a big mistake to come to that judgment. It is important to caution that the real poll has yet to be held some months down the road in May.