Gilmore gets Labour ready for the long haul

Six months on from the general election, the Labour Party is displaying quiet signs of optimism and self-belief, writes political…

Six months on from the general election, the Labour Party is displaying quiet signs of optimism and self-belief, writes political correspondent Mark Hennessy

For much of the general election campaign in May, many in Labour really believed they would win power. Now they are getting used to Opposition - again.

The failure left many devastated; exhausted by tiredness, by a lack of hope, and by a declining faith that the keys of office would ever return during the political lifetime of its current front-rankers.

The man who led them confidently into election battle, Pat Rabbitte, was the first to go, announcing his departure in late August - much to the surprise of most other colleagues.

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Most in the party, it is fair to say, would have preferred if Rabbitte had stayed on for a few months longer - if only to allow time for the wounds of the election campaign to heal.

His place was filled by Eamon Gilmore, though since it happened without an election he was denied the opportunity to lay out his stall to the party, and to the electorate, with the clarity needed.

This weekend the party is at conference. Although not entitled to live television coverage, it is the first real opportunity that he will have to drive his message home.

(The timing is awful. Yesterday, Gilmore and his brother, John, buried their mother, Celia, to whom they were particularly close, in the graveyard of their native Caltra.)

Two months after taking over the leadership, the essence of what Labour will be under Gilmore is still undefined, although the Galway-born politician is quietly building a reputation.

So far, he has succeeded in developing personal relations with party members, encouraging the grassroots and adopting a more positive face to the world than Rabbitte often did.

But he has much to do.

Many in Labour do not know him at all, while half of the public - despite Labour's recent poll rise - have no opinion about him - good, bad or indifferent.

Ideally, even before his recent bereavement, Gilmore would have preferred the conference to happen later, but scheduling issues forced its place on the calendar this year.

Nevertheless, Gilmore has grounds for confidence, particularly since he has displayed the ability to get under Bertie Ahern's skin - even if the Taoiseach is not playing at the top of his game.

"Unlike Rabbitte, Gilmore is not trying to get a quip into every phrase. He has been more forensic. And it bugs Bertie. There is no doubt about that," said one Labour colleague.

Life in Opposition is easier in the Dáil for both Gilmore and Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny, following the near-disappearance of the Progressive Democrats, the electoral losses for Independent TDs and Sinn Féin, and the Greens' departure into power.

This time around, Sinn Féin and Joe Higgins, who made a career out of meticulously prepared "spontaneous" repartee, are not around to snatch media coverage during Leaders' Questions.

Echoing the views of the majority of the party, Gilmore has insisted that Labour will not be part of any election alliance in the next campaign. So far, the declaration has been accepted.

Ruairí Quinn tried to keep ground for manoeuvre, with a preference for Fine Gael, and failed. Rabbitte unambiguously threw his lot in with Fine Gael and also failed.

However, acceptance of an independent strategy is easy 4½ years out from an election. And it is meaningless. The real questions will not come until closer to polling day.

So far, Gilmore has been careful not to promise "quick fixes", implying that his leadership is one that could be around for two full Dáil terms, and maybe more.

Such timetables, though, are hostages to fortune. "The measure of success in 2012 will be taken in 2012, not before it. Things change after elections," warned one Labour parliamentarian.

Tough questions about candidates remain. The quickest way to annoy Labour is to make any reference to the average age of their Dáil team. Hairs bristle within seconds. But the reality is that, unlike Fine Gael, it did not receive a major infusion of new blood - although significant hope has been invested in Cork East's Sean Sherlock.

The difficulty for Labour will be to redefine its policies for a more individualistic age, while retaining its core principles of freedom, equality, community and democracy.

Nearly every TD and party member will mention the need to adapt policies, yet few, if any, are able to articulate a vision of what the new message should be.

Labour must appeal to those with ambition, not just to those with need, and voters with a social conscience. It must find a way to marry the consumerist age with old values. But it must not hector.

None of this will be easy.

Rabbitte tried hard, but was judged by the public to be complaining all the time when most people were actually quite content, thanks very much.

Ruairí Quinn highlights one danger: that Labour could suffer for calling for extra State services while the public's confidence in the State's ability to deliver falls because of the "incompetence of others".

Still bloodied, Labour will attempt to begin the long trek back to becoming a real contender for power this weekend in Wexford. Realistically, its journey must end in success next time.

If not, questions about the party's reason for existence will be asked, and not without justification.