Mr Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition has survived another vote of confidence in Israel after more resignations and factionalism. But his victory has a distinct and potentially dangerous cost the possible return of Gen Ariel Sharon to a senior position in the cabinet, where he would replace Mr Dan Meridor as finance minister. Mr Netanyahu was last night having second thoughts on this appointment; it would be highly ill-advised for him to proceed with it. In the capacity of Finance Minister Gen Sharon would be given a role in the cabinet sub-committee which formulates policy on the Middle East peace process. His record as the author of the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon and his role as housing minister during which he aggressively expanded Israeli settlements, reinforce the pessimism that has surrounded the peace process since talks were suspended three months ago. Gen Sharon has vehemently opposed the Oslo accords on which the process is based because they implicitly accept the creation of a Palestinian state. He is an unreconstructed expansionary Zionist, whose return to such prominence is laden with political significance.
As is usual with Mr Netanyahu, the outcome is the result of tactical and opportunist infighting within his coalition, this time for his own survival as leader. Mr Netanyahu's eventually successful struggle to clear his name in the Ronnie Bar-On affair, after being indicted for fraud and breach of trust following the appointment of this obscure solicitor as attorney-general, badly eroded trust in the Prime Minister among many Likud ministers. They include Mr Meridor, who last week joined other critics of Mr Netanyahu on the back benches. Other party stalwarts, including Mr Yitshak Shamir, have lost confidence in him. And he was able to survive yesterday mainly because he made a deal with one of his coalition partners, Mr Natan Sharansky, a former intimate with whom he had fallen out, providing extra resources to be channelled to new immigrants from Russia.
These manoeuvres come at a time when the tone of inter-party exchanges and those between religious and secular Israelis has taken on a new vehemence surpassing the normal boisterous adversarialism of Israeli politics. The traditionally deep cleavage between the Ashkenazi or European Jews, mainly Labour supporters, who have made up the country's establishment, and the Sephardic or Oriental Jews, mainly originating from Middle Eastern countries who tend to vote for the existing coalition parties, has become more polarised. Although such confrontation comes in cycles, it seems to be getting worse.
The signals from this latest twist of Israeli political fortune will reverberate through the Middle East in months to come. Where they leave the peace process is deeply problematic. It is more and more difficult to believe Mr Netanyahu's commitment to the Oslo accords. Indeed, his efforts in recent months to speed up negotiations, following the international row over the Har Homa housing development in east Jerusalem, point to an alternative process with a different dynamic, leading not to a Palestinian state but a heavily constrained autonomy.