FF in striking distance of third straight term in power

Inside Politics:If an election was held last Tuesday, Fianna Fáil would have pulled in 40 per cent of the vote, according to the Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll. The crucial question, though, is how many Dáil seats the party would have won with that percentage share of the first preferences. Given our system of proportional representation there is no exact answer but previous election results can provide some guide.

In the general election of 1992, Fianna Fáil won 39.1 per cent of the vote and 68 seats in the Dáil. Five years later, in 1997, the party got almost exactly the same share of the vote, with 39.3 per cent, but won nine more seats, ending up with 77.

Back in November 1982, Fine Gael won 39.2 per cent of the vote and won 70 seats.

On this basis, the number of seats to be harvested from 40 per cent of the vote could range from 70 to 79. Between those two figures hangs all the difference between returning to power in coalition with the PDs or having to do a deal with some other party or parties or, possibly, even being in opposition. To get an overall majority, Fianna Fáil would have to take a minimum of 84 seats.

A number of factors account for the difference between the generous seat bonus achieved by Bertie Ahern and the considerably smaller one obtained by Albert Reynolds and Garret FitzGerald. One is clearly the political persona of the Taoiseach himself.

He has been the most popular political figure in the country for almost 20 years and that is a huge pull factor in encouraging voters to give their lower preferences to Fianna Fáil candidates.

Then there is the issue of transfer pacts. Fianna Fáil clearly benefited in the last general election from the fact that there was no alternative government on offer. This allowed the party to win 49 per cent of the seats with 41 per cent of the vote. However, in 1997, when there was a clear choice of a rainbow versus Fianna Fáil, the seat bonus was almost as good, with 39 per cent of the votes translating into 46 per cent of the seats.

Fianna Fáil strategists believe that the key factor in maximising the seat bonus is running the minimum number of candidates. Mathematical studies of past elections have shown them that running the exact number of candidates for the number of seats being targeted yields the best results.

If Charles Haughey had been able to win the kind of seat bonus achieved under Mr Ahern, Fianna Fáil would have won an overall majority in every election under his leadership and would have taken over 90 seats in February 1982, instead of the 81 actually achieved.

Given Bertie Ahern's record in two general elections, the odds have to be in favour of Fianna Fáil coming in at the upper end of the 70 to 79 seat range, if the party wins 40 per cent of the vote on polling day. Such an outcome would give the current coalition a good chance of returning for a third successive term, as long as the PDs don't collapse. With just 3 per cent of the vote it is impossible to predict how the PDs will do because the party would inevitably lose some seats and could even drop as low as two. The Irish Times poll puts the party's share of the vote disastrously low in Dublin.

If Fianna Fáil is in the high 70s and the PDs make it back with three of four TDs they should be able to put together a coalition with the support of Independents.

Mr Ahern has demonstrated that a group of Independents can be every bit as solid as a coalition partner, although two Fianna Fáil gene pool Independents are now out of the equation. Niall Blaney has joined the party and Mildred Fox is leaving politics.

Problems will arise for Fianna Fáil if it does not get the seat bonus achieved in the past two elections.

If the number of seats slips to the mid or low 70s and the PDs take a drubbing then it may be impossible to put Humpty Dumpty together again.

One option would be to bring the Greens into government as part of a three-party coalition.

Given the emphasis of the Greens on carbon taxes that might prove difficult but it would not be impossible.

Fianna Fáil has already started to use some Green language and could certainly adapt itself to a moderate Green agenda.

The PDs have also being playing up their Green credentials with Dún Laoghaire TD Fiona O'Malley laying heavy stress on alternative energy.

Everything would depend on the numbers and whether the Greens wanted to pursue a straightforward environmental agenda or a more aggressive anti-globalisation policy that would make it impossible to work with the other parties.

If the Greens don't or won't make up the numbers Fianna Fáil will look to Labour.

However, that option is not nearly as open as many in Fianna Fáil think, regardless of the arithmetic after the election.

Labour would have to change its leader, dump its commitment to the electorate to put Fianna Fáil out of office and get a party conference to ratify the decision.

The chances of that happening are slim, regardless of how Fianna Fáil tries to cosy up.

Finally, there is the Sinn Féin option that the Taoiseach has ruled out but which the Tánaiste, Michael McDowell, clearly believes is a real possibility.

There is little likelihood of Sinn Féin joining a Fianna Fáil-led coalition but every prospect of the party voting tactically to make Mr Ahern taoiseach, in the event of a hung Dáil.

Of course if Fianna Fáil doesn't get 40 per cent of the first preference vote, or if its bonus reverts to the historic norm, all these scenarios will be meaningless and Fine Gael and Labour will be the ones negotiating with the other parties and Independents to try and put a majority together.

Events over the next six months will be decisive in shaping which options the voters choose.