A new inter-governmental conference (IGC) of the European Union is about to be called to renegotiate the constitutional treaty agreed by political leaders in June 2004 but rejected by French and Dutch voters the following year. At the EU summit in Brussels next month, Chancellor Angela Merkel hopes to reach agreement on the timing and summary content of a new treaty.
Against this background, bargaining intensified last week, pitting those who support a simplified and scaled down document against defenders of the original text. Italian prime minister and former Commission president Romano Prodi bluntly warned the minimalists - among them the British, French, Dutch, Polish and Czechs - that 18 states have ratified the treaty and want to see it substantially retained. If necessary this can be done through a two-tier arrangement in which those who want to move forward do so while keeping the option of joining later open to more hesitant partners.
Mr Prodi mentioned especially a strengthened foreign and security policy, a more permanent EU presidency and more majority voting. He is correct to insist that those member-states who are satisfied with the treaty should drive a hard bargain in the IGC. Ireland should be counted among them, irrespective of the outcome of the election; Bertie Ahern chaired the last IGC in its closing stages and most parties support the constitutional document. Nevertheless it must be recognised that this IGC will scale it down by subtracting the explicitly constitutional language. The main battle will be between those who want to keep most of the institutional substance and those who want to reduce or alter it.
Several elements of compromise are clearly visible in what should be a short-lived exercise capable of being agreed during next year's French EU presidency. In Brussels last week President Sarkozy supported a mini-treaty including a permanent presidency, enhanced co-operation and more majority voting. He wants it ratified by parliament, not another referendum, but favours a dynamic EU. How far this is compatible with British, Dutch and Polish support for a much less ambitious document remains to be seen in the negotiations. Speaking to the European Parliament Dutch prime minister Jan-Peter Balkenende emphasised the role of national parliaments and the need to protect national identity. The Dutch are well prepared for these discussions.
Although the treaty issue figured hardly at all during the course of the prolonged general election campaign, it is certain to take up a lot of government time over the next year.