Enda's 'Bohola Strategy' drives Fine Gael's hunger for power

From the party think-in it's clear Fine Gael's focus will be on convincing voters it would make a better fist of the economy, …

From the party think-in it's clear Fine Gael's focus will be on convincing voters it would make a better fist of the economy, writes Deaglán De Bréadún

ENDA KENNY, Barack Obama and David Cameron have one thing in common: they are all trying to oust the existing regime and institute a new order - with themselves at the head of it, naturally.

Cameron looks like a good bet, Obama is probably even money, but what about the Fine Gael leader? The outward signs are promising.

The Irish economy is falling, nay, plunging into decline through a combination of domestic and international factors. But bad news for the Government should be good news for the Opposition. The sun may not be shining, but Fine Gael is making hay with constant claims that the Government ignored repeated warnings to take corrective action before the money ran out and boom turned to bust.

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As Fine Gael people see it, Brian Cowen may have brains but he has nothing like the popular appeal of Bertie Ahern, tribunals or no tribunals.

They portray Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan as a lawyer who is out of his depth when it comes to economics and Tánaiste Mary Coughlan, rather unkindly, as someone promoted beyond the level of her competence.

But Enda, ah Enda. Fine Gael handlers' eyes mist over as they launch into another encomium about their man's abilities.

He climbs mountains like Kilimanjaro, he cycles the Ring of Kerry and there is no limit to the man's enthusiasm and zest for the fray.

It's true that Kenny has remarkable energy.

He may be the longest-serving TD and Father of the House, but he hits the ground on an election canvass like a Kilkenny hurler launching himself into Croke Park on All-Ireland day.

At the level of high politics, there are doubts, however.

His Dáil performance has failed to excite the reviewers. His comments to the news media tend to lack point and the constant use of "doorsteps" rather than indoor news conferences suggests a lack of confidence in the man's capacity to take difficult questions.

Thinking on his feet is not the Fine Gael leader's great strength.

In this respect, he comes a poor second to the Taoiseach, who is, if anything, too good at coming up with a quick retort.

Kenny also needs to "gen up" more on the economy. He was on shaky ground yesterday when asked about the outcome of the pay talks - on the surface at least a minor triumph for Cowen.

Richard Bruton was more coherent and put the Opposition case clearly and succinctly, but Kenny did not seem to have been sufficiently briefed.

Fine Gael rightly sees the economy as the vehicle which can transport the party into office. The challenge is to persuade the electorate that it would make a better fist of things than the current holders of power.

The Fine Gael perspective is that the public are giving the Government a certain leeway at the moment, allowing Cowen and Co a period of time in which to demonstrate their ability to tackle the crisis.

But the crisis is so deep that Fine Gael believes the public is likely to run out of patience, particularly as job cuts bite even deeper and the cost of living increases. Tolerance will turn into anger, or so the main Opposition party is hoping.

Old stagers in the party look back on the past and mutter that, on almost every occasion Fine Gael came to power since 1948, the economy went into a downturn and Fianna Fáil sailed back into office on the back of voter dissatisfaction.

Now the economy has run into trouble while the Soldiers of Destiny are holding the reins and, whatever their other concerns, Fine Gael are taking pleasure in Fianna Fáil's discomfort.

Another source of satisfaction is the demise of the Progressive Democrats. Kenny made the point this week that he was the fifth Fine Gael leader who had to contend with the PDs.

The unspoken subtext of his remarks was: "And I'm the one who saw them off."

And it's true. The PDs lost six out of eight Dáil seats last year and all of them went to Fine Gael under Kenny.

That was the end of the smaller party and everything that has happened since was just a long, drawn-out obsequy.

For reporters who watched the PDs committing hara-kiri in Newbridge on Tuesday, arriving in Clare for the Fine Gael strategy20session was like coming from a funeral to a wedding.

The sad and hurt expressions of the PD councillors, who clearly felt a little betrayed and very uncertain, were in contrast with the upbeat, good-humoured banter at the Radisson Hotel.

It was a source of particular irritation to the main Opposition party that the PDs, many of them from Fianna Fáil backgrounds, were "stealing" votes from them with Fine Gael-type right-wing policies.

Now there is a grand total of 51 Fine Gael TDs compared with two still operating (just about) under the PD label.

It makes for an even more optimistic outlook on the part of election planners who are targeting 18 more seats all around the country for the next Dáil.

In the meantime there are the "locals and Europeans" next June. Fine Gael is making a serious effort to enhance its urban vote and hopes to come back with at least 300 council seats.

Ireland currently has 13 seats at Strasbourg, five of them held by Fine Gael. For the next election, the total has been reduced to 12 but FG people express themselves quietly confident they can retain five of these.

But whatever the economic difficulties, there will be no Tallaght Strategy this time. For one thing, the sitting Government has a secure majority so it doesn't need Fine Gael support to administer tough economic medicine.

Secondly, Fine Gael is hungry for power and has what might be called the "Bohola Strategy" (from Kenny's Mayo constituency) which can be summed up as: "Put us in to get them out".