By this day next week we will know more about the collective will of the electorate in Iraq - or at least those of them brave enough to vote in the country's first "free" election. The inverted commas are justified because, despite the best will in the world, Iraq's general election next Sunday will be very much less than free as understood by the rest of the democratic world.
The conditions in which it is being held will not wholly invalidate the result but nonetheless it is impossible to approach the poll in a completely sanguine frame of mind.
The level of violence in Iraq is unacceptable and there is every indication that those behind most of the killings will do their utmost to make this a very violent and bloody week. All persons of goodwill hope that they fail. However, based on the record to date, this appears unlikely. The group blamed for much of the violence, the shadowy organisation led by Musab al-Zarqawi, gave notice of its intentions yesterday.
In a chilling message, a voice believed to be al-Zarqawi's, castigates Iraq's Shia majority for embracing the election. Railing against the very idea of democracy itself, al-Zarqawi warns: "Candidates in elections are seeking to become demi-gods while those who vote for them are infidels. And with God as my witness, I have informed them (of our intentions)." Having declared war against "the principle of democracy and all those who seek to enact it" it is clear that voters, polling stations as well as Iraq's new and barely trained police and military will bear the brunt of the attacks.
Time and again, the ordinary people of Iraq say what they want: an end to violence and the ability to lead normal lives. The fact that they cannot yet is the fault mainly of the US-led coalition forces. They have been charged by the United Nations with achieving and maintaining security and have failed to do so. In his inauguration speech, President Bush made much of bringing freedom and democracy to countries where both are absent. While a laudable goal, the enslaved of the world will not be encouraged yet by what they see in Iraq.
The broad outcome of Sunday's election is known already. The United Iraqi Alliance, led by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim and founded at the behest of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, draws its support from Iraq's 60 per cent majority Shia population and may be expected to emerge the largest grouping in the 275-member transitional assembly. The Iraqi List, a group of secular Iraqis headed by the interim prime minister, Mr Iyad Allawi, will achieve some level of support. The Islamic Party, an amalgam of several Sunni Muslim groupings, is boycotting the poll. The fourth main grouping, the Kurdistan Alliance, has but one main aim: to achieve a greater level of autonomy, if not outright independence.
So the Shias - well disposed to both Iran and Syria - will be the driving influence in writing Iraq's constitution and moves towards full parliamentary elections. The end result may, or may not, accord with the sort of freedom Mr Bush wishes to bring to Iraq and beyond.