The Irish Times view on the year in politics

The Russian invasion of Ukraine last February was a major global event and its impact was quickly felt on Irish politics and society. Not only did it result in a sudden increase in the cost of living here, due to soaring energy bills, but the influx of more than 60,000 refugees represented a huge challenge for the country.

The invasion prompted a display of unity by western democracies in support of Ukraine which clearly came as a surprise to Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Taoiseach Micheál Martin was unequivocal in his response, condemning the Russian attack as an outrageous breach of the most fundamental principles of international law. It was one of the few points of general political consensus in Ireland during the year, bar some voices on the left , with People Before Profit TDs refusing to applaud Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy when he addressed the Dáil in April.

At European Union level Martin was one of the strongest advocates of punishing sanctions against Russia and support for the defence of Ukraine. While Ireland did not send weapons to Ukraine, a range of other assistance was provided.

That was followed by a declaration that Ireland would open its borders to an unlimited number of refugees from Ukraine. The offer was gratefully accepted by tens of thousands of people, mainly women and children, who arrived in the country in the following months. Housing such a large number of homeless people continues to present major challenge for a country already in the throes of a housing crisis.

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The other consequence of the Russian invasion was the sudden rise in the cost of oil and gas and the knock on impact on inflation which was already beginning to take off. Inflation hit 9 per cent in the summer and rose to 9.2 per cent in October before easing back a bit in November.

Rising prices across the board prompted calls by the Opposition, led by Sinn Féin, for an emergency budget during the summer but this was resisted by the Government which had responded in late spring with an energy subsidy of ¤200 per household. It was a continuation of the debates during Covid-19, when Sinn Féin pressured the Government to do more in terms of supports.

The rising political temperature on the cost-of-living issue and the ongoing hit to households meant that the Budget was brought forward to the end of September. The two budget ministers, Paschal Donohoe and Michael McGrath,announced a massive ¤11 billion package which included a subsidy of ¤600 per household over the winter to cushion people against the increase in energy costs. In tandem with the budget, the agreement between the Government and public service unions on a pay deal for 2022 and 2023 ensured industrial peace, in contrast to the rash of public service strikes in the UK.

Opinion poll battle

In domestic Irish politics Sinn Féin built on its lead in the opinion polls as the single largest party, though its ratings stalled somewhat towards the end of the year. The two big Government parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, got some lift in the polls post-budget , but it remains to be seen if they can make further ground following the December cabinet changes.

These centred on the rotation of the Taoiseach’s office from Micheál Martin to Leo Varadkar, in line with the deal agreed in June, 2020 on the formation of the government. The move took place on December 17th with Varadkar beginning his second stint as Taoiseach and Martin moving to Foreign Affairs. The other major change was the swapping of roles between Paschal Donohoe and Michael McGrath.

While rotation of the Taoiseach’s office and the subsequent reshuffle of cabinet portfolios took place without a hitch, the Government will face a stiff test of its credibility in the year ahead. The most pressing issue will be to deliver on the new Taoiseach’s pledge to make serious inroads into the intractable housing crisis but continuing pressure on the health service, the urgency of climate action and providing for Ukrainian refugees will also test the Government’s abilities to the limit.

For the Government, the danger is that the voters are now taking fiscal stability for granted, after a long period when strong tax revenues have allowed for a combination of both higher spending and lower borrowing. As the economy slows, this leeway will gradually narrow. And the issues which have led to Sinn Féin being the party with most support in the opinion polls – particularly housing – remain to be convincingly tackled.

Whether tighter economic times will lead to voters putting a higher premium on the economic management record of the Government remains to be seen. But there is no doubt that they will expect progress on the big structural issues. The climate change agenda will also provide challenges; people support action but have yet to be persuaded that they themselves should be inconvenienced too much. Winning back the trust of voters in the key battleground areas of health and housing, in particular, will be vital to the coalition’s hopes of re-election.