EU Summit: the waiting game

The hope is Godot will arrive this week with the UK triggering of article 50

There was a Waiting for Godot quality about Thursday and Friday's EU summit. A lot of hanging around in the expectation that something will happen soon – the triggering by the UK of article 50 – but when, the leaders were not clear. And they had to wait for it to happen before getting on with business. And though Brexit was not on the agenda, it permeated everything.

Even the blazing row about the reappointment, against loud Polish protests, of their compatriot Donald Tusk to his second term as European Council President was in essence a Polish proxy battle against the Old EU with the same rhetoric from the Polish foreign minister against a "union controlled by Berlin" and German "diktats" that were familiar from the Brexit campaign. But the 27 to one vote answered the point eloquently. Not even Hungary's Eurosceptic Viktor Orban supported his allies in Warsaw.

Poland's petulant response, refusing to sign off on the meeting's "conclusions", served only to expose its far-right government's isolation. That said, President Hollande's bullying suggestion to Poland that it should show some gratitude for the EU financial support it receives will not have gone down well among other net beneficiaries.

The hope is that Godot will arrive this week – the article 50 Bill returns to the Commons today, and once the Lords' misgivings have been summarily disposed of, it will be ready for Royal Assent tomorrow when Theresa May may trigger its provisions. If she does so, within 48 hours the EU will be able to set out guidelines for negotiations and will convene another summit for April 6th to begin the process of negotiations.

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In between, the union will mark its 60th anniversary at a Rome summit at the end of this month, when the 27 remainers will respond to Brexit by reaffirming their commitment to continued integration. What form that will take is not yet clear, although both Hollande and Chancellor Merkel have spoken in recent days about a multi-speed Europe that allows those who want to advance faster on certain projects to do so.

On Friday the Council, in the absence of May who does not want to be seen to celebrate the anniversary, was discussing whether that multi-speed project should be mentioned ahead of, or after, the Rome declaration’s commitment to unity.

At issue are important concerns from the newer member-states about encouraging the emergence of permanent divisions within the union, of classes of first and second degree membership.

As for our Brexit Border challenge, Taoiseach Enda Kenny remains resolutely confident in his agreement with May that this is simply a “political” matter and appears to have launched the ball back into our EU partners’ court. The UK’s absolute determination to leave the common external tariff, however, may not leave them the sort of freedom and options Mr Kenny expects.