Early constituency carve-up is TDs' nightmare scenario

Inside Politics: Most politicians were taken a little aback by the Government's decision to seek the advice of Attorney General Rory Brady on whether a constituency revision should be set in train immediately in light of the preliminary census figures published on Wednesday.

A new constituency carve-up so close to the next election represents a nightmare scenario for most TDs.

The question now is whether the timing of the election will be influenced by the possibility of an early constituency revision.

The confident assumption among the vast majority of politicians that the election would not take place until the second week of May next year has taken a little bit of a knock as a result of the uncertainty. Even if the Attorney General advises that there is no legal imperative to establish a constituency commission on foot of the preliminary census figures, there is a possibility that the Taoiseach will go to the country earlier than he originally had intended - before the final census figures are published in April.

If the worst-case scenario comes to pass and the Attorney General advises that a constituency commission should be established on foot of the preliminary census, then Bertie Ahern will have a tough decision to make.

Rory Brady is expected to come back to the Cabinet with his advice in September. If a commission was established immediately after that it would be expected to report back by March 2007, and a new set of constituency boundaries would be in place by the expected election date in May.

If that happens, Mr Ahern will have to decide whether to go to the country in October and get the election out of the way before the boundary changes are recommended; or go in January, when the commission may still be deliberating; or wait until after it reports and fight the election on the basis of new constituencies.

There was always a case of sorts for an October election, based on the fact that opinion polls usually show a significant increase in Government support over the summer, when the Dáil is in recess and the political temperature drops.

Some Labour politicians have felt all along that Mr Ahern might decide to capitalise on the traditional poll trend and take them by surprise in October. Few people in Leinster House believed this would actually happen, particularly as the trend in the polls right up to the summer recess was bad for both Government parties.

A dramatic turnaround by late September would have been required to give Mr Ahern real hope of the three-in-a-row and, in any case, there was no indication that the Taoiseach was remotely attracted by the idea.

A constituency revision would certainly change the equation, but the Taoiseach would still be very reluctant to opt for an October election. It would represent a retreat from the long-announced pledge to go the full five years and, more importantly, it would involve the abandonment of a carefully-thought-out electoral strategy.

The plan has been to introduce one more budget in December, which will almost certainly be the biggest giveaway budget of them all. The budget will be the bedrock of the Fianna Fáil strategy going into the election campaign. Brian Cowen has a shrewd political appreciation of what is required to consolidate the Fianna Fáil core vote as well as to appeal to the wider electorate.

Last year's budget was carefully designed to show the more caring side of Fianna Fáil and it resulted in a significant rise in party support in January, even if that was eroded during the political controversies of the spring and early summer.

Regardless of the constituency issue, the Taoiseach will be strongly inclined to get the budget out of the way before he considers going to the country. If that means fighting an election on new boundaries, it might not make all that much difference to the national outcome, however much it may discommode sitting TDs. Fine Gael will be at least as upset, and probably even more so, given the careful planning the party has put into its strategy in the existing 43 constituencies.

The Taoiseach could possibly dissolve the Dáil in January, just before the commission reports, but that would prompt charges that he was afraid of the outcome.

If, on the other hand, the Attorney General advises that there is no need to establish a commission on the basis of the preliminary figures, the pressure will be off. The Government can wait until the final census figures in April before establishing a commission, but that could also influence the timing of the election.

There is argument that the Taoiseach might go to the country before the final figures are published to ensure that there is no court challenge to the election.

It might also suit the Government to go to the country when the bounce from the budget still has some resonance with the voters. If this year's pattern in the opinion polls is anything to go by, that bounce ceased to have any great impact by March, and it could be lost by May. It is an axiom in Fianna Fáil that summer elections suit the party best, but a combination of factors could push Mr Ahern into trying a different strategy next time around.

If the budget is greeted as a success, it might not make much sense for the Government to allow the opposition parties to wear it down in a war of attrition in the Dáil during February and March.

In 1973, Jack Lynch dissolved the Dáil in early February, on the day before it was due to come back from the Christmas recess. He lost the election, though by the narrowest of margins - the Fianna Fáil vote actually went up on the previous election.

If Bertie Ahern can increase the party vote next time out he will almost certainly be back as Taoiseach.