THE "nightmare" of all party talks in Northern Ireland being bogged down over arms decommissioning on June 10th has been concentrating the minds of governments and officials on both sides of the Irish Sea.
And there is good reason for it. David Trimble is kicking up his heels again. In the current issue of Ulster Review, the party leader demands the introduction of tougher security measures, favours the introduction of internment and calls for restrictions on the common travel arrangements which exist between the Republic and the United Kingdom.
Mr Trimble produces a mishmash of political ideas, seeking to build on the integrationist policies of James Molyneaux, while at the same time developing a Northern Ireland assembly. A devolved assembly with wide ranging administrative powers is proposed, along with an extension of the functions of the Northern Ireland Grand Committee.
New powers for the committee would allow it to hear evidence in Northern Ireland on proposed legislation and to take questions in Northern Ireland from any government minister.
The Ulster Unionist leader doesn't believe the IRA will reintroduce its ceasefire. But if a "miracle" happened and Sinn Fein became entitled to attend the talks, the first item on the agenda would be a total and absolute commitment to the principles set out in the Mitchell report and its proposals for decommissioning.
The second item, he said, was "likely to be the principle of consent". And he posed the question "Will the process then collapse?"
"The Irish Government would like to think that the issue of decommissioning need only be raised and not resolved. They are wrong," Mr Trimble declared. "If and when the government sees the process stall on these issues, it will be forced to show its mettle."
"Showing its mettle" seems to be Trimble shorthand for British government support of unions demands on decommissioning and for its traditional "veto". Such an approach is deeply destructive of a process which depends for its success on compromise.
And while it may be argued that Mr Trimble is forced into a hard line position because of the threat posed in the coming elections by Ian Paisley and the DUP, the suspicion remains that the UUP leader is determined to collapse the talks rather than treat with Sinn Fein while the IRA retains its arms.
The governments are determined the process will not stall over either decommissioning or consent. It would be, Dublin officials agree, a worst case scenario if following an IRA ceasefire all party talks began on June 10th, only to become bogged down in disputes over agendas and procedural matters involving the three strands of talks and decommissioning.
Such a development would strip any impetus away from the peace process and convince the hard men of the IRA of the correctness of military action.
John Bruton, Dick Spring and Proinsias De Rossa have insisted that, while decommissioning must be addressed, it should not create a logjam in the talks process. They have been supported in that by Bertie Ahern and Mary Harney. All agree that decommissioning cannot be delayed as Sinn Fein and the IRA would wish until the end of the talks process.
Paddy Mayhew outlined British government thinking when he visited Dublin last Wednesday. Decommissioning, he said, "must be achieved in parallel with progress on the political issues to be addressed in the three strands. We shall need to agree a format which can facilitate this".
As of now, Government officials are working hard to prepare that format. And evidence of past political failure the breakdown of the 17 month IRA ceasefire is there to encourage them. They have nearly two months in which to devise a format that cannot be unpicked by either nationalists or unionists.
And there is no chance the terms will be revealed in advance of elections on May 30th. To do so would only provide the Northern parties with further controversial material in a heated election situation.
The ground rules for all party talks agreed by the two governments are already feeding unionist fears, and these concerns will almost certainly be cranked up a notch when the British government publishes its election legislation after the Easter holidays.
Mr Spring and Sir Patrick reviewed these proposals during the week, and the Government is taking a relaxed approach to the issues. It appears satisfied the proposed Forum will have no control over the negotiation process that this will not be subject to change and that the lifespan of the Forum will be time locked.
Its key concerns revolved about the need to re-establish the IRA ceasefire and to prevent an early collapse of the talks, once they begin on June 10th.
Hope that the IRA will renew its ceasefire has not been extinguished, in spite of a traditional Easter message from "Oglaigh na hEireann". That statement was regarded as being "moderate" by Sinn Fein, but its core message may yet give legs to John Hume's proposal for all Ireland referendums on the use of violence for political ends.
Declaring that a return of Stormont was "never going to happen", the IRA asserted that its "mandate for armed struggle derives from Britain's denial of the fundamental right of the Irish people to national self determination and sovereignty."
It continued "The IRA remains fully committed to its republican objectives and for so long as Britain persists in its denial of national and democratic rights in Ireland then the IRA will continue to assert those rights."
Here be dragons. This justification of the IRA's mandate has been overtaken by the Downing Street Declaration with its clauses providing for consent and parity of esteem and by the Framework Document for a political settlement. A referendum of the kind proposed by Mr Hume would allow people on both sides of the Border to formally adopt fully democratic standards.
The pendulum of advantage may be swinging back towards Sinn Fein within the republican movement because of the unequivocal messages which have been coming from the United States and from Dublin in recent weeks.
Resumption of the armed struggle would eject Irish republicans into the outer darkness destroy the best hope of Irish nationalists in 70 years and reestablish British influence over Washington policy making. Jaw jaw rather than war, war was the only way to go.
There are some indications the message is getting through, even in the IRA's Easter message. The faceless men of the army council declare "There remains only one place for all the representatives of the Irish people to go, and that is to the negotiating table. It is our desire and resolve that they will go there in circumstances which will allow for the core issues at the heart of this conflict to be addressed and resolved."
The importance of the format for talks, now being devised by the two governments, cannot be underestimated.