There have been many points along the tortured road of the North where men and women have said: this is the moment, this is make-or-break, this is where the hardest hearts must soften and peace will have its day. They said it after La Mon, after Enniskillen, after Greysteel, after Frizzell's fish-shop. And then, once an interval had passed and the cries of the widows and children had faded from the screens and the front pages, the barbarians resumed their deadly work. Those who deal in murder and those who support them from the shadows - have their trade well finessed. They know when to ease back and when to resume the bloody work.
Only the very naive at this juncture will therefore hold out much hope that we are approaching the longed-for day when there is a full and lasting peace. And only those of a supremely optimistic disposition will feel there is a chance that the Stormont talks regardless of who attends - will lead to an agreed settlement. There is revulsion at the murders committed in Lurgan. There is fear of what may happen at Drumcree and elsewhere as the marching season picks up momentum. But are there, in the present circumstances, any grounds for hope which did not exist before?
There certainly are some new factors. If there is a genuine desire on the part of Sinn Fein and the IRA to abandon violence and to enter talks there is now a clear pathway before them. They have a fixed timespan from ceasefire to entry. The talks are limited to next May. And decommissioning has been put to one side. But none of this amounts to anything if the Sinn Fein/ IRA organisation and it is one is immobilised by a cadre which simply cannot break away from the gun and the bomb. It appears that such a cadre does exist and that the so-called peace wing can neither control it nor persuade it. Nor will it split from it. Unless something changes in this equation the best that can be hoped for is a temporary respite until the bloodstains have faded from the streets of Lurgan. In the meantime, Sinn Fein will pour out a daily ration of cant and humbug.
There are also new over-reaching political realities. Mr Blair's government is absolutely resolved to move forward without Sinn Fein if necessary. If sufficient consensus can be found among the parties of the middle ground, new political structures may emerge from the talks. If the talks process collapses, he will seek to engage Dublin's support for proposals to be put to the people by way of referendum over the heads of the participants in the failed process. There is a powerful incentive here for all parties. They can have a say in shaping the future or they can stand back and have it shaped for them.
The choice facing Sinn Fein is defined by these circumstances. It cannot translate its sizeable percentage of the vote into practical political power unless the IRA ends its violence or until it splits from the IRA. The choice facing mainstream unionism is also defined by these political realities. If Mr David Trimble is prepared to use the talks process with or without Sinn Fein present - he has the opportunity to influence substantially the shape of whatever settlement emerges. If he makes the talks unworkable or if he declines to accept the two governments' shared position on decommissioning, he effectively abdicates his people's political future to Mr Blair's policy gurus.
Dare we hope? If Sinn Fein has the courage to confront the violent irredentism of its hard men and if Mr Trimble has the confidence to lead his people forward perhaps yes.