Clear message for parties to ponder in byelection analysis

The electorate is a demanding taskmaster

The electorate is a demanding taskmaster. Since traditional voting patterns weakened, the message invariably sent to governments at by-elections is: "A lot more to do."

While no one can draw definite conclusions regarding prospects for the next general election, the byelections do throw light on the issues preoccupying the electorate in two counties around Dublin.

Immediate commentaries after byelections, especially from the parties themselves - designed to reassure party support and influence wider opinion - are not the same as cold analysis.

The focus is mainly on the viability and coherence of an opposition alternative, based for the moment on only Fine Gael and Labour.

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The Government parties have nothing to be unduly complacent or despondent about. Convincing people over the next year or two about who can provide better answers to new and acute challenges as they develop, while safeguarding the huge gains of recent years, will be the real test.

Opinion-poll data show that people want big improvements in services soon - and without having to pay higher taxes or charges to obtain them. For now, ample revenue is flowing into the Exchequer from economic buoyancy. Further resources can be gathered by continuing vigorously to pursue tax evasion and by terminating those tax breaks for which no compelling ongoing justification has been produced.

There is no case for increasing gross current expenditure much beyond the 10 per cent provided for in the post-budget book of estimates, which is four times the level of anticipated inflation.

Prioritisation, targeting, efficiency, value for money and, where appropriate, public-private partnership have to be the means of achieving better results. The revision of the growth and stability pact may create scope for increasing borrowing for investment, taking care, of course, not to reignite inflation.

Three issues have come to the fore: the trials of commuting, pressure on schools and the cost of childcare.

Since 1997 there has been major investment in roads and public transport, and visible improvements have taken place. Improving primary roads across the State is important, including the provision of bypasses and extra bridges in busy towns and cities where serious bottlenecks develop.

But this does not always solve the problem of commuters having to rise before 7am and spend up to two hours in a car twice a day. Increased public transport capacity is vital to the provision of choice, and this is coming onstream.

The success of the Dart, Arrow and Luas shows a strong public response. An article in the current issue of RAIL cites a report from the Public Transport Executive Group on seven UK light-rail schemes and finds that they are meeting their objectives for usage, urban regeneration and switching passengers from road to rail.

According to the report, compared to major bus improvements, light-rail systems achieve six times the level of traffic reduction, with 20 per cent of peak-hour users switching from cars. It concludes that, where passenger numbers are high, light-rail systems are more cost-effective than buses.

Perhaps those transport economists who resist rail-based solutions might take note. Early extensions of the Luas should be proceeded with, as well as decisions on where conventional rail can relieve some of the worst commuting problems from all directions, including Navan.

A lot of the pressure for the western rail corridor is to ease commuting into Galway.

With the strong rise in population across the State, schools, both old and new, are under pressure. Investment in education is never wasted and should be a central platform of Government policy. Great work has been done on modernising the school building stock, but this also emphasises what remains to be done.

The INTO, at meetings with Oireachtas members round the State this week, has pressed for a renewed drive to reduce class sizes in primary schools. This could alleviate the demand for special-needs teaching, into which a lot of resources have been poured.

The third issue to be addressed is the cost of childcare. The big rise in child benefit to a more acceptable level served as an all-purpose stopgap solution, along with increased supply of childcare places. It must be clear to the Government that, while welcome, that is not enough.

Qualitatively, while carefully not re-creating his financial strains, there is something to be learnt from the approach of British chancellor of the exchequer Gordon Brown, who combines emphasis on economic performance with a strong social dimension.

In his March 16th budget he announced a major refurbishment of 9,000 primary schools over three years. Working families on an income of up to £59,000 (€85,000) will be able to claim tax credits from 2006 on 80 per cent of weekly payments of £175 (€250) for one child and on £300 (€435) for two or more children. There are separate initiatives to tackle child poverty where family incomes are low.

When it comes to political issues, we often have a choice of listening to the experts or listening to the people. A former county council chairman in the southeast told me last week that election prospects there will turn on whether the Government decides, in line with popular wishes but against the advice of experts, to establish a university for the southeast and provide public radiotherapy facilities in Waterford (also required in the northwest).

Fergus Finlay, the most influential adviser of a generation, leaves the political sphere for direct engagement in the field, as chairman of Barnardos, which both works and campaigns on child poverty and neglect, and has previously shown great commitment on disability issues, as well as having immense experience from the changes made possible by the Celtic Tiger economy.