The latest demographic report by the Central Statistics Office is, arguably, one of the most important pieces of planning information to be published in this State in recent years. For decades, successive governments have muddled through on issues of social policy and planning; sometimes responding with innovative flair to rapid social change, sometimes failing abysmally. It is only in recent years - prompted partly by EU membership and its attendant structural funding - that forward planning has taken on any real meaning within the public service and the political system. Even at that, the sudden, explosive economic growth of recent years has taken governments by surprise. And the shortfall in our infrastructural facilities has quickly become evident.
The raw data on which considered political, economic and social planning will be based is contained in the document entitled Population and Labour Force Projections, 2001-2031, published last week. According to the various projections used, the population of the State could grow by more than a quarter between now and the year 2031. Some observers feel the rate of increase could be even greater. Should that happen, strong economic growth would almost certainly be underpinned; a great deal of wealth would be generated and demand for housing, social services and an improved economic infrastructure would intensify.
This Government has already taken some tentative steps towards addressing long-term demographic problems by announcing the establishment of a social welfare pension reserve fund to deal with an ageing population into the second quarter of the next century. But much more needs to be done. The planning of educational facilities looks particularly complex, with the number of primary school students forecast to decline over the next few years and then to rise again. At secondary level, the picture is somewhat clearer, with student numbers forecast to decline by over 20 per cent within the next twelve years. There are obvious implications for teacher-training, pupil-teacher ratios, adult education, third level colleges and school buildings and equipment. The same holds true where State provision of housing, health, water, sewage, transport and social welfare is concerned. As the population and the economy grow, so will public expectations. From a population base of 3.6 million in 1996, there could be as many as 4.8 million living here by 2031. In the shorter time span of twelve years, it is estimated that the labour force will grow to just under 2 million from a figure of 1.6 million last year. When you consider that twelve years ago the number of Irish people at work was just over 1 million the rate of increase is staggering. Those new workers will require homes to live in, transport systems and all the basic necessities of a modern society. The public housing mistakes of the past cannot be repeated if an equitable and caring society is to be created. Social partnership has been the key that has opened the door to economic progress for this State. It must now be built upon in order to create a society in which everyone will be a stakeholder. The unfortunate reality is that, for too many people, poverty is still a grinding reality and deprivation is a way of life.
The demographic projections produced by the Central Statistics Office have set out the extent of the problems and the opportunities facing this Government and its successors. There is no time to be lost in getting to grips with the new realities.