THE VISIT by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Burma (known by its military regime as Myanmar), is ostensibly about maintaining pressure on the regime to keep up political reform and to sever its connections with North Korea, specifically its overtures to acquire missile technology.
But her visit, the first by a US secretary of state since 1955, also represents a shift and warming in the US, and potentially other western countries’, relationship with Burma, and the opening of a significant new arena for US regional competition for influence with China. It follows a tour of Asia by President Barack Obama which also emphasised increased US regional engagement.
Burma, ruled since 1962 by a brutal military, held elections in November last year, though boycotted by the main opposition, which saw the military notionally hand power to civilian rule. In truth, President Thein Sein and most of his cabinet are former generals dressed in civilian clothes, and the advance towards democracy has been painfully slowwith the continued detention of up to 1,600 political prisoners. Violent conflict with ethnic minorities, which has displaced up to 100,000 refugees, remains a serious cause for concern. “Military abuses continue with impunity in ethnic areas,” Human Rights Watch reports. But Obama on his recent Asia trip spoke of “flickers of progress” that merit reaching out to.
Clinton is to meet opposition leader and Nobel Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, who was released from captivity in November last year. She had spent 15 of the past 21 years in detention, and the two will discuss her intention to run in a forthcoming byelection which will bring her back formally into the political process. Both Obama and Clinton phoned and cleared the visit with Suu Kyi before it was announced.
Yesterday in a US interview the latter expressed a willingness to gamble on the regime’s commitment to reforms. “We hope that they are meaningful,” she said “I think we have to be prepared to take risk. Nothing is guaranteed.” But she insisted that the international community must also make clear to Myanmar that it is watching and is prepared to act if arrests resume.
The secretary of state is, however, unlikely to promise the regime more than a road map for the eventual easing of US sanctions against the country. Indeed she played down prospects for rapid movement which would require consent from Congress where some remain deeply sceptical of the reform effort and where questions have been raised about the visit itself.