Taoiseach Brian Cowen may still show something that has been sorely lacking in this country in recent years: leadership, writes QUENTIN FOTTRELL
A S SOMEONE who has sent his fair share of post-party apologies by text, e-mail, Hallmark card, Interflora and carrier pigeon, I for one am reluctant to do a rain dance on the political grave of Fianna Fáil regarding the next general election.
I never believed that Brian Cowen's party hosting was over, not yet anyway, and I believed it less when Enda Kenny, the thin man, sang.
Being unpopular doesn't feel good, be it when you are hitting a new low among your peers or voters, or making mistakes - and Fianna Fáil has made plenty with their Budget and economic mismanagement - but it's not the worst thing that can happen.
After the Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll, Cowen said: "The important thing is how the country reacts to the situation we now find ourselves in. My job as Taoiseach is to lead a government with the necessary policies that have to be adjusted to meet the situation that we're in."
They were fighting words, effectively telling the nation that they will have to grow up and suck it up. They were also the most important words spoken by any Irish politician in recent times.
A glum, unflappable manner is reassuring in an economic crisis. This is something Gordon Brown found with the London Times/ Populous poll, where 52 per cent said he was the best UK prime minister "right now, to deal with Britain's economy in recession", versus 32 per cent for the as yet untested David Cameron. Obviously, the prospect of Brown cutting taxes didn't exactly hurt either.
Cowen greeted his own poll with about as much excitement as he showed when he became leader. That is, not much. Satisfaction with Cowen fell a staggering 21 points to 26 per cent since June. But he looks finally ready to face up to being the country's political black sheep, enabling him to make the necessary tough and immediate choices, without keeping one eye on the next general election.
He is now free.
His last boss was inexplicably popular, which didn't bode well for the overrated notion of popularity or the public's judgment, or fickle nature, for that matter.
After the recent Budget fiascos, Cowen may still show something that has been sorely lacking in this country in recent years: leadership.
Imagine. We could yet kiss goodbye to consensus politics for the kind of leadership Brian Lenihan showed when he guaranteed the financial system, a move that saved the banks from near-certain collapse.
It was a last chance saloon stance born of cold, hard desperation. Still, the guarantee was initially given a frosty reception by the British government, ECB and European Commission. But that was before other EU countries, one by one, started to follow suit.
Lenihan hasn't escaped. He came 18th in Tuesday's Financial Timessurvey of 19 finance ministers. Not a surprise, considering the arse has fallen out of the nation's trousers and of the hive of international bankers on the judging panel.
However, second-last is almost more embarrassing than Paddy last.
Finland's finance minister, Jyrki Katainen, was top dog. He told the FT: "You always have to be sure what your banks are doing."
Doesn't sound like rocket science, does it?
Enda Kenny hasn't worn his party's popularity lightly. "This is not about me," he said after Fine Gael's rise in the poll. Then he went on to talk about himself. "This is about my leading and building the Fine Gael team . . . My leadership is not one of suppression but of encouragement . . ."
In other words, he knows that we know he is riding on Cowen's tattered coat tails and that not everyone thinks he's the best man for the job, so he wants to reassure us that there are others to help . . . like Richard Bruton, who beat him in a follow-up poll on who would be a better leader, 46 per cent to 28 per cent. Worse, 26 per cent had no opinion. Forget about being popular or unpopular: that's gotta hurt.
The backlash can be worth waiting for. I'd like to thank Jesus Christ and Jive Records - to quote another fallen angel, Britney Spears - that George Bush's reign is nearly over. If Bush hadn't become the most unpopular US president in history - according to a recent CNN poll - would this new era of president-elect Barack Obama, with the
first black first family about to move into the White House, have happened in our lifetime, I wonder?
The last eight years was too high a price to pay to live to see this moment. But even Bush is chewing the inside of his cheek less often these days and appears more comfortable with his pariah status, if only because he must know that he can do no more harm.
Another high-profile casualty to feel the ire of public discontent is Queen Sofia of Spain, who espoused some dubious views on same-sex marriage, and other issues, in a recent book.
The royal palace issued an apology - take note, embattled politicians. Queen Sofia was always known as a smiling and reserved figure, much admired by Spaniards rich and poor, gay and straight. I don't agree with her opinions, certainly, but I never warmed to her silent, queenly demeanour either.
I hate to say this, but the black sheep in me likes her better already.