Inside Politics:On this weekend in 12 months' time the votes in the next general election will be counted, according to informed guesswork among Fianna Fáil backbenchers, writes Stephen Collins
If they are right the first Saturday after the May bank holiday of 2007 will reveal whether Bertie Ahern has pulled off the remarkable feat of winning three general elections in a row.
The favoured timetable for the next election involves the Taoiseach dissolving the 29th Dáil on the day it resumes business after next year's Easter recess.
Mr Ahern would use the first day of the Dáil summer session as the launching pad for a three-week campaign, with the election scheduled for the Friday after the May bank holiday.
Fianna Fáil TDs had a jaunty air about them as they discussed this scenario this week. The latest opinion poll has shown a rise of 5 per cent in the party's standing, and they are now confident they have seen off the twin threat of Fine Gael and Sinn Féin, thanks in no small measure to the Taoiseach's decision to have an elaborate 90th anniversary commemoration of the Easter Rising.
Launching the book What If by historian Diarmuid Ferriter based on his popular radio series, Minister for Education Mary Hanafin asked rhetorically: "What if Bertie Ahern did not have the 1916 Easter parade? Would Fianna Fáil have gone up 5 per cent in the polls?"
WB Yeats in one of his late poems posed the question: "When Pearse summoned Cuchulain to his side/ What stalked through the Post Office?"
Politicians are now wondering what stalked through the political landscape when Bertie summoned Pearse to his side this Easter. The early signs are that the Taoiseach has successfully harnessed a major historical event to the cause of Fianna Fáil.
The other parties were caught in a quandary. By simply endorsing the Taoiseach's approach they knew they would facilitate his political strategy but, if they opposed it, they ran the risk of appearing both churlish and "anti-national".
The issue posed different dilemmas for Fine Gael and Sinn Féin, and both parties seem to have been caught on the hop.
Sinn Féin looked foolish for criticising the parade because of the involvement of the Army.
The failure of senior party figures to show up on Easter Sunday indicated a continuing failure to fully recognise the institutions of the State, and that raised questions about the party's current approach to a settlement in the North.
Fine Gael made the opposite mistake of not being critical enough of the whole project even when it was clear that the Taoiseach was intent on using it for party advantage.
Enda Kenny did protest at Mr Ahern's Fianna Fáil gloss on modern Irish history, but he nonetheless took his place on the reviewing stand and lauded the parade.
Mr Kenny was probably on to a loser no matter how he reacted, but a colder analysis from the very beginning about the place of 1916 in Irish history might have served Fine Gael better.
If others accept without a murmur the contention that the 1916 Rising is the sole inspiration of Irish independence, then Fianna Fáil is on to a winner every time. The Taoiseach was able to capture the event for party advantage because the other leaders allowed him to set the rules of the game.
He will now be sorely tempted to have another big commemoration next year even if the 91st anniversary does not have quite the same resonance.
When he first announced his intention of reviving the parade at the last Fianna Fáil ardfheis, Mr Ahern promised an annual event. Although Minister for Justice Michael McDowell has expressed doubts about the wisdom of trying to repeat the project next year, it may prove politically irresistible. The 5 per cent rise in support for Fianna Fáil after the parade is significant.
The threat facing the party in the next election is that Fine Gael may eat into its vote from one direction while Sinn Féin takes a slice off it at the other end of the spectrum. A Sunday Business Post/Red C tracking poll indicated that the party had managed to repel both intruders.
It is too early to say whether the trend in April will hold through the early summer but it has given the main Government party a timely morale boost.
It also again showed that the Government recovers ground during periods of political calm, particularly when the Dáil is in recess. There is an obvious lesson about the timing of the next election, and that is why most Fianna Fáil TDs expect it to take place directly after next year's Easter holiday.
The Taoiseach, though, could face a dilemma if the next few polls show the Fianna Fáil vote continuing to strengthen.
If the Easter recess is good for the Government, the summer recess is even better as Opposition parties simply do not have the means of applying sustained pressure over the long holiday period.
It could make sense for Mr Ahern to forward his election plans to next October and go to the country straight after the summer holiday.
That, however, remains unlikely; the Taoiseach has repeatedly stated his intention of going the full five-year term and almost everybody expects him to do so.