The Taoiseach and the British Prime Minister are expected to travel to Belfast later today to continue their efforts to break the deadlock over the decommissioning of paramilitary arms which led to the suspension of the Northern Ireland Executive and other institutions almost three months ago. The task which the two leaders are undertaking - with up to three days set aside for negotiations with the Ulster Unionist Party, Sinn Fein and the SDLP this week - is increasing in urgency. There are a mere 19 days left before the second anniversary of the ratification of the Belfast Agreement by concurrent referendums, North and South, on May 22nd.
There is little public evidence to suggest, at this late stage, that a new formula has been devised by Mr Blair and Mr Ahern to end the stalemate and facilitate the full implementation of the agreement by the approaching deadline. There is loose talk of "ideas on paper" which have been put to the pro-agreement parties for their consideration over the past two days. Behind the scenes, however, and especially on the London side, there are signs that substantial moves are underway to confront the decommissioning obstacle to democratic politics once and for all. The final push is on to save the most inclusive accommodation ever offered to all of the people of this island.
Not surprisingly, the latest speculation centres on embarking on a new sequence of events which, hopefully, could lead to the restoration of the Northern institutions and the re-establishment of the Executive. The British and Irish Governments would start the sequence with the publication of a joint statement. It would amount, it seems, to an audit of the agreement, what has been achieved, what remains to be done, and when to effect full implementation of all of its component parts. This joint document would be followed by a statement from Sinn Fein on behalf of the IRA or from the IRA itself.
The difficulties which Mr Ahern and Mr Blair face in bringing a new dynamic to the re-working of an old formula should not be under-estimated. Mr Ahern put it a different way when he stated in London on Tuesday that "there seems to be no end to the amount of debate which you can have on this issue". It appears that the two leaders are encountering difficulties putting hypothetical scenarios to Mr David Trimble and Mr Gerry Adams. It also seems that the breach of trust between unionists and republicans which led to the suspension of the institutions last February is very much in evidence during the negotiations.
Notwithstanding all of that, however, the Taoiseach and the Prime Minister are honour bound to make one final attempt to salvage the Belfast Agreement. Clarity is the primary requirement to satisfy both sides. The leader of UUP, Mr Trimble, agreed to allow Sinn Fein enter and participate in an inclusive government for a number of weeks on the understanding that progress on the decommissioning of IRA weapons would follow. The nature of the relationship between devolution and decommissioning is still the core of the problem.
The audit of the agreement, prepared by the two Governments, can do much to help Mr Adams to construct a forceful argument to put to his republican colleagues. He can be given clarity on Patten, the criminal justice system and demilitarisation. At the end of this week, however, the door to progress will be opened only if the republican constituency accepts that it has to address the issue of the war being over and the consequent necessity to put guns beyond use. That is the price of democratic agreement.