Five years after the transition to majority rule, the people of the Republic of South Africa return to the polling stations on Wednesday, to deliver a verdict on the government's performance. South Africa's second all-race election will differ from the first in many respects but the result will be familiar - another overwhelming victory for the African National Congress (ANC). And, as in 1994, the speculation centres mainly on the size of the ANC's majority.
Opinion polls suggest that the ANC, along with its allies, might win two-thirds of the seats - a majority of some consequence because it would allow the party to alter the constitution unilaterally. The ANC's majority is due, in the main, to the fact that it remains more a movement than a political party. Under a strong leadership, it continues to play host to conflicting political philosophies, thus maximising its electoral appeal.
It is on the votes which are not going to the ANC, that attention is focused in the closing days of the campaign. The indications are that the New National Party (NNP), remodelled successor of the National Party which governed uninterrupted through the apartheid era, may be eclipsed by the more liberal and vibrant Democratic Party.
The NNP, hitherto the recipient of all Afrikaner support, is suffering from weak leadership and post-De Klerk syndrome. The standing of Mr F.W. de Klerk, the former Prime Minister, among his erstwhile supporters is low. He is accused of treachery by the volk, of handing over to black rule (while he had promised power-sharing) in exchange for a Nobel Peace prize and a lucrative biography. Afrikaners are being attracted towards the Democratic Party, led by the vigorous Mr Tony Leon. It is some turnaround for Afrikaners, with their long tradition of anti-Semitism and hostility to Britain, to row in and support an English-Liberal party which has a Jewish leader. The Democratic Party will probably be the only party, apart from the ANC, to increase its share of the vote on Wednesday.
For the ANC, all that matters is whether it gets the two-thirds majority. With an iconic leader in President Mandela and a powerful and determined successor in Deputy President Mbeki, the ANC is on a roll and its only concern on Wednesday will be over-confidence. Despite being in power for five years, it will not suffer for its failings. Instead, the ANC's honeymoon period continues. It will benefit from the fact that the country has come through five years of majority rule, with democracy firmly established in a continent where military rule or totalitarianism are closer to the norm. But the hallmarks of good democracy are strong opposition and a free press. If the ANC wins two-thirds of the seats on Wednesday, its ability to change the constitution at will might not auger well for its opponents. The ANC does not need to alter the constitution in order to tackle the crime, unemployment and poverty which afflicts in large measure so many of the people, including its own supporters.