Fianna Fáil TDs cheered Minister for Finance Brian Cowen to the rafters, confident that a return to power has been brought one step closer, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Correspondent
The relief and pleasure among Fianna Fáil TDs was palpable in the Dáil chambers as Minister for Finance Brian Cowen sat down after finishing his third Budget.
Though Cowen insisted publicly that his task was to secure the State's finances into the future, his backbench colleagues have a more pressing need: the protection of their seats.
Blessed by fortunate times, Cowen has, in reality, been able to do both as he is predicting a 1.2 per cent Budget surplus at the same time as he is spending an extra €2.8 billion.
Much of the Budget had been predicted - the sharp increases in social welfare payments, extra mortgage interest reliefs for first-time buyers and more spending on the care of the elderly.
In the eyes of the media, the advance publicity damaged the Budget as "a story" yesterday, as shown by the lack of numbers attending the Minister's traditional post-Budget press conference in Government Buildings last night.
If opinion pollster Frank Luntz on RTÉ's The Week In Politicshas shown anything, however, it is that political messages must be driven home with a sledgehammer before the public pays the slightest attention.
Sitting next to Taoiseach Bertie Ahern, who offered quiet words of praise, Cowen is clearly a man who believes that he will be returned to the Department of Finance once the election is out of the way.
Bar the 50 cent cigarette rise which may irk some smokers, the Minister made sure to avoid offering political hostages-to-fortune less than six months from an election.
Besides, more than honouring 2002 election promises, the decision to sharply increase old-age pensions is both socially just and politically shrewd. Older people vote.
However, there are changes that will lead to extra costs, particularly in private health insurance, which will have to rise to cope with the 25 per cent rise in private hospital bed charges.
Having refused to heed demands for house stamp duty cuts, Cowen has targeted extra mortgage interest relief for first-time buyers, a key group in the commuter belt constituencies. Undoubtedly, Cowen was right to believe that developers would consume any stamp duty cuts, but his extra interest relief will do little for those who cannot buy at the current prices.
The decision not to cut stamp duty will be interpreted as a rebuff to PD leader Michael McDowell, who proposed changes last September.
In truth, McDowell has been badly misquoted. He said from the beginning that cuts were a matter for a new government, but it was naive of him to think that people would not believe they were coming earlier.
For his part, McDowell can trumpet the one percentage point cut in the top rate of tax to 41 per cent - something that neither Cowen nor Ahern particularly wanted to do some months ago.
Furthermore, Cowen went ever further, saying that FF and the PDs intended to cut the rate to 40 per cent in next year's budget "if honoured with a further term in office".
On tax, the Government increasingly insists that it has met its 2002 commitment to ensure that 80 per cent of all tax earners would pay tax only at the standard rate.
Clearly it is sensitive on the issue. Last year the Government said 36.3 per cent of all workers had paid the top rate before the budget, and that 31.9 per cent would do once its measures were put into effect.
Yesterday the detailed annexes accompanying Cowen's speech insisted that 23.2 per cent of all workers had paid 42 per cent tax during the year - 8.7 per cent fewer than it said would do so last year. Next year just 19.8 per cent would pay at the highest rate.
However, the Government insists that there is a difference between those who are liable for the higher rate and those who actually do so.
The problem, the Department of Finance insists, is that the move from tax-free allowances to tax credits "may have obscured progress made" since 2002 towards the holy grail of 80 per cent.
Cowen has adopted a St Augustine-style "Lord, make me pure, but not yet" mantle when it comes to the environment and the threats posed by global warming.
Vehicle registration taxes will be altered to penalise SUV and other high-consumption car owners, but, again, conveniently not until the election is well out of the way.
Meanwhile, he began the process of putting aside serious money to pay for Ireland's failure to abide by Kyoto carbon targets, a failure that will cost dearly in coming years. Already he estimates that the bill between 2008 and 2012 will be €270 million.
The Minister's recognition of the issue stands in contrast to the Government's actions as it has failed miserably to set proper insulation standards in the 500,000 houses built in recent years.
The lack of coherent planning policies forces people to travel longer and longer distances, creating CO2 emissions that taxes will be needed to pay off.
These are issues that will not trouble most politicians so close to polling day. Politically, Cowen has kept out of trouble, been generous, and touched all of the right notes.
The highest tribute that can be paid to his speech was given, perhaps, by Fine Gael's Richard Bruton. Rising to reply in the face of FF exultation, he virtually ignored it.
For now the Opposition must hold on to the hope that the public will see tax cuts and higher spending as their due, and not something that leaves the Government deserving of reward.