You have to hand it to Fianna Fail: the party doesn't give up easily. Having failed in 1959 and 1968 to jettison the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system of proportional representation in favour of the British, first-past-the-post system, Noel Dempsey is at it again.
But this time it is a more delicate operation, rather than the smash-and-grab approach of earlier years. It is a case of "don't frighten the horses" - the electorate in this case - as Fianna Fail sidles up to the levers of power. The party no longer wants to embrace the British system, now that even the British have recognised its inherent unfairness and opted for a system of PR. But it would like to introduce an Additional Member System (AMS) of PR of the kind operated in Germany and New Zealand.
This new model would produce single-seat constituencies and give the electorate two votes. People would first vote for candidates in their constituencies and then for the party of their choice. Successful candidates in the constituencies would be joined by the top names from lists drawn up by party leaders and their officers, in proportion to the votes received.
The first anti-democratic landmine is buried here. Parties will only be allocated seats if their national votes exceed a certain percentage. In Germany, that percentage is 5 per cent. But if a 5 per cent cut-off point was applied here you would immediately eliminate the Progressive Democrats, the Green Party, Sinn Fein and all Independents, and hand Fianna Fail a "manufactured" Dail majority, with over-representation for Fine Gael and the Labour Party.
The Progressive Democrats, in government with Fianna Fail, are hardly likely to behave like turkeys voting for Christmas. So the threshold figure is likely to be lowered to take account of the 4.6 per cent vote the party secured in the last two general elections. A spokesman observed wryly that while the party supported reform, it would be "disposed to protecting the political diversity we have".
As part of its softening-up process, Fianna Fail suggested that an Oireachtas Committee on the Constitution, headed by Brian Lenihan, should commission a report from Michael Laver of Trinity College. What they got back exposed the emperor without his clothes. The proposed reform would provide Fianna Fail with massive benefits.
An AMS system, even with a reduced 2 per cent threshold - and no figure has yet been mentioned by Mr Dempsey - would embed Fianna Fail within local democracy as the only relevant political party, even if seats between the parties were allocated in much the same proportion as at present. ail would win most of the constituency seats under AMS, with other parties typically winning their seats from the list-PR element of the election." So, in a reformed local authority system, enjoying greater powers and with a single mandate, Fianna Fail would be placed in an unassailable position. Its TDs would form the main conduit for constituency representations to the Dail and that would almost certainly be reflected in party influence at local level.
List TDs, on the other hand, would be freed from the electoral pressures of engaging in high levels of constituency work but they would become much more dependent on head office and the favour of the leadership.
So, we would get a two-tier system of democracy, with one section partially isolated from the demands of the electorate and the other, elected section, composed almost entirely of Fianna Fail TDs. The other consideration is that Independent TDs and the smallest political parties would probably disappear. Given that four of the six Independent TDs might be considered to hold Independent Fianna Fail seats, Mr Dempsey could probably live with that. But, because the Coalition Government depends on those votes for its Dail majority, threatening them with extinction doesn't look like a good idea.
What's it all about then? It may be part of a longer-term game plan, designed to come to fruition after the next general election. The Government's focus appears to be shifting towards the question of pay for TDs and the number of Dail members.
THE Minister of the Environment is a longterm devotee of reform and the revitalisation of Fianna Fail. It was he who introduced the "scrappage scheme" for elderly county councillors last year. A total of 481 elected representatives availed of the Government's largesse, at a cost of £5.3 million to the State. The result was an influx of new blood, particularly into Fianna Fail, last June, and the party gained an extra 23 seats.
As part of his reform programme, Mr Dempsey has promised to ban TDs from holding council seats after 2004. The disappearance of that "dual mandate" should automatically reduce the constituency workload TDs have bitterly complained about for years. It would, however, also remove one of the most cogent arguments for changing the PR system.
Charlie McCreevy got involved, or some would say entangled, in the process earlier this week. The Minister for Finance had let it be known privately that he was anxious to do the right thing by his parliamentary colleagues, now that the State's coffers are awash with loot. But he went public to link the promise of higher political salaries with a reduction in the number of TDs, thereby offering support to Mr Dempsey's proposals.
A new system of PR, according to Mr Dempsey, would lead to a reduction in the number of TDs from 166 to 120. Mr McCreevy talked of figures of 100 or 110 and said: "I believe there should be fewer TDs and we should pay them more." The matter of pay will be examined by the Review Body on Higher Remuneration in the Public Service when it begins work next January. And the Members' Services Committee indicated it would try to link TDs' salaries to those of principal officers, giving a rise of 30 per cent, from almost £38,000 to £50,000.
Now, Dail members are quite entitled to try to improve their pay and conditions, especially when they see the financial advances secured by blueflu gardai and teachers. Four years ago, they submitted a similar claim of 30 per cent to the Review Body, based on extra productivity and workload. And they were infuriated when they received a 3 per cent award.
What is different this time is that they are being publicly hallooed along by the Minister for Finance, who, at the same time, is demanding wage restraint from other workers. And they are attempting to reconnect with an outdated system of public service pay relativities.
Successive governments and ministers for finance have preached about ending a system of pay relativities which encourages leap-frogging pay increases. Such linkages have already disappeared from a modernised private sector. But they are being tenaciously guarded by the public sector, in spite of Bertie Ahern's best efforts.
For TDs, supported by the Minister for Finance, to re-establish such a system for themselves would be unconscionable. And to justify it in terms of electoral reform is a nonsense. What's next: a scrappage scheme for Oireachtas members?
Dick Walsh is on leave