The Open Skies agreement reached between the EU and the US yesterday holds out the prospect of lower air fares and greater choice for travellers. Few can argue against that, but no doubt some will, particularly those who believe that aviation is a very significant contributory factor to global warming.
As with all such deals, only time will reveal whether or not it lives up to expectation. But the precedents are good, most notably the liberalisation of the European aviation market in the 1980s which gave birth to Ryanair and, in time, the whole low-cost airline sector which has left an indelible mark on the lifestyle of many Europeans.
However, a number of factors that threaten to put a brake on similar developments in transatlantic aviation have already manifested themselves. Yesterday's agreement is incomplete in so far as it leaves in place, and in some cases augments, restrictions on the ownership of European and US airlines. This will hamper but not prevent the market-driven rationalisation of the sector that would be part of any post liberalisation shake out.
Rationalisation of course means job losses and politicians on both sides of the Atlantic are keen to avoid them. In this instance, the concerns appear deeper on the US side where the industry enjoys a greater amount of patronage. Powerful elements in the US Congress have indicated they will block attempts to take over any of the major US carriers.
None of this is likely to have any immediate or direct consequences for Ireland. The Government's stake in Aer Lingus should be sufficient to ward off any takeover attempt as was the case when Ryanair made its approach last year.
But the effects of Open Skies will be felt here in two ways. Aer Lingus will be able to start offering additional services almost immediately and it announced three new routes yesterday. The expansion of its transatlantic service is a very significant part of the strategy mapped out by the company when it came to the market last year. Yesterday's agreement is a key enabler of that although it also exposes Aer Lingus to more competition from US airlines.
The news is less positive for Shannon airport which has relied on business generated by the compulsory stopover enforced on selected flights between Ireland and the US under the bilateral agreement that will now be superseded. Various local lobby groups are moving into overdrive, but it is heartening to hear the management of the airport express confidence in its future.
Shannon has a clear plan for dealing with the consequences of Open Skies and predicts that it will ride out the inevitable initial reduction in traffic. This will require a cut in the airport's cost base which again means job losses and the marketing of Shannon as a destination in its own right.
On balance, Open Skies is to be welcomed. But it must deliver on its promise.