Nobody who saw the massive demonstration in Copenhagen on Saturday could question the selfless idealism of the majority of those who marched 6 km from the Danish parliament to the Bella convention centre, demanding urgent action to halt global warming.
For what is to be decided by 110 heads of state and goverrnment and ministerial representatives of 82 other countries at the UN’s 15th climate change conference (COP 15) this week is, as former president Mary Robinson said in her speech at the rally, nothing less than “the future of the world”.
Although progress was made last week, with new, more concise negotiating texts now finally on the table, it is still unclear whether the Copenhagen summit will produce the “real deal” sought by the protesters and by millions of people throughout the world. But if catastrophic climate change is to be averted, an ambitious, comprehensive and equitable international agreement must be found.
The cuts in greenhouse gas emissions put forward so far – even by the European Union – are clearly inadequate, as are the offers made by developed countries to help poorer nations to cope with global warming and the terms of a deal to halt deforestation, which is responsible for nearly 20 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions.
There can be no illusions that closing the gaps and plugging the loopholes will be easy, especially with just five negotiating days left. Tackling climate change is the most complex and difficult challenge we face because it will involve doing something we have never done before – making the transition to a low-carbon economy from the era of burning fossil fuels that has underpinned our development for more than two centuries.
Nobody could pretend that this will be painless, for countries as well as companies and individuals. Yet there are signs that it is already happening, even in Ireland. It will also require enormous investment in renewable energy sources, to avoid the likely higher costs in the long-term of doing nothing.
That so many world leaders will be travelling to Copenhagen for the final round of negotiations must be seen as a hopeful sign that they will at last overcome deep differences to reach agreement. Ministers are already arriving and it will be up to them to make progress on the negotiating texts over the next few days, so that heads of state or government will have fewer issues to resolve.
These will be the crunch issues, however: how far developed countries are prepared to go to reduce their emissions and dig deeply into their coffers to help the poorer nations, and how far major developing countries such as China and India are prepared to “bend the curve” of their ever-rising emissions.
Before COP 15 started, expectations were low. There was a widespread belief that it would produce no more than a “politically-binding agreement” with no legal substance. But after a full week of negotiations, the mood has changed and there is now at least a prospect that something more solid may emerge. The future of the world depends on it.