The outcome of the Cork South Central by-election was not unexpected. And it is unlikely to affect the stability of the Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrats minority Government. Even before a number of recent opinion polls showed Fine Gael's Mr Simon Coveney to be leading the field and likely to win on voting transfers, conventional political wisdom had installed him as a firm favourite. That is not to belittle his solid achievement or the benefits that will flow to Fine Gael as a result of the victory. The fact that the win was fashioned at a time of rapid economic growth, when Fianna Fail is enjoying massive public support and the Government's satisfaction rating is at near-record levels, will add to his satisfaction and give heart to Fine Gael and to the opposition parties.
The volatility of the Cork South Central electorate has been unambiguously displayed in the past two general elections. Between 1992 and 1997, Fianna Fail's share of the vote rose from 36 to 43 per cent. The gains made by Fine Gael were even larger and increased from 18 to 31 per cent. By contrast, the Labour Party vote halved, from 18 to 9 per cent. Support for the Progressive Democrats was down from 13 to 4 per cent. And the Green Party made a strong showing when it pushed its vote up from 2 to 7 per cent.
Given that by-elections are stand-alone snapshots of voter sentiment and reflect local considerations and issues, along with the quality of the candidates involved, too much cannot be made of the result. Fianna Fail did no worse than had initially been expected. And the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, was wrong in attributing a disappointing result to machinations within RTE. Sinead Behan was a good candidate who took almost 30 per cent of the vote. The figure fell short of results achieved in the past two general elections. But, by-elections favour opposition parties, rather than governments. And, in light of the "sympathy votes" attracted by Mr Coveney because of the tragic death of his father, it was a commendable performance.
It does, however, send a salutory reminder to the party that its national standing of 56 per cent, measured by a recent Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll, does not necessarily translate into seats at election time. Fine Gael and its leader, Mr John Bruton, will be cheered by the strong result. Planners had hoped to use a by-election win as a morale booster for the party and as a springboard for next June's local and European elections. It would seem their strategy is still on track. Labour Party hopes for a third by-election victory in succession, under Mr Ruairi Quinn's leadership, were not realised. But Mr O'Sullivan's performance, in which he bettered the 1992 general election result, should reinvigorate the party in Cork South Central after the drubbing it received in the 1997 general election.
The news for the Progressive Democrats and the Tanaiste, Ms Harney, was dismal; the party trailed in after Sinn Fein. There was no sign of the revival that would allow the party to recover the seat it once held here. The message for the Green Party was comforting, in the circumstances, and promised opportunities in the future. Overall, the result has emphasised the Government's dependence on the support of Independent TDs in the Dail. But the opposition parties are still unlikely to show an appetite for an early general election.