More than half the electorate now favours a change of government at the next election, as public satisfaction with the performance of the Fianna Fáil/Progressive Democrats Coalition continues to wane.
But while disillusionment with the present Government runs deep, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll, voters have yet to make up their minds on the composition of an alternative coalition.
The opposition parties have successfully drawn attention to the policy and administrative failures of the Government on issues ranging from the treatment of old-age pensioners in nursing homes, to waste of public money on major construction projects, reform of the health services, indecision over the development of Dublin airport and abuses within the Garda Síochána. And voters have concluded that, in spite of the growing economy, the existing Coalition is no longer their preferred option for the next government. Fewer than one in three believe they should continue in office.
The task now facing the Fine Gael leader, Enda Kenny, and the Labour Party leader, Pat Rabbitte, is to offer voters a clear alternative by identifying common policy positions and approaches. Details of any programme for government are unlikely to be unveiled until an election has been called. Before that, however, members of Fine Gael and the Labour Party front benches in the Dáil must display convincing evidence of their ministerial ability as a viable alternative.
The fragmented support for political parties at this time makes it impossible to predict the actual outcome of the next election. Fine Gael and the Labour Party lead Fianna Fáil and the PDs in public support, but both combinations fall well short of a Dáil majority. The uncertain nature of public opinion and the uphill task facing the opposition parties has been underlined by the finding that the Fianna Fáil-PD option still finds most favour with the electorate, even though a majority wish to change the Government.
The roles to be played by Sinn Féin and the Green Party in any post-election situation may be crucial. The Greens have set their face against a pre-election pact involving Fine Gael and the Labour Party. But party leader, Trevor Sargent, and almost two-thirds of Green Party members favour entering a coalition arrangement with them. Sinn Féin, in the event of an IRA stand-down, could form a blocking vote. Its members support the formation of a coalition with Fianna Fáil by a margin of two to one. All of the major parties have ruled out this development while the IRA remains in existence. That situation could change, however, if the IRA followed the advice of Gerry Adams.
The shape of the next coalition government is still wide open. The results of this opinion poll are the first to suggest that another coalition combination could be a real option.