Harry McGee: What does Sinn Féin’s version of change look like?

Sinn Féin has positioned itself as a classic populist, left-wing alternative to the establishment parties. Across developed democracies in Europe, it’s become a commonplace phenomenon. The loss of support for long-established mainstream parties has been coupled with a growing cynicism about politics and the establishment in general. The rise of populism has occurred on the left and on the right.

The populist dialectic for any leader on the opposition side is a simple one: oppose just about every measure of the Government tooth and nail. Mary Lou McDonald is a textbook opposition leader. Her stump Dáil speech has become a daily exploration of Roget’s Thesaurus entry on “outrage”. Pearse Doherty’s contributions have been more or less the same.

If you are looking for Irish comparisons of that form of sinewy confrontationalism, you do not have to trawl too far backwards in history. The best example in recent political history is between 1982 and 1987. Fianna Fáil leader Charles Haughey railed against the Fine Gael-Labour Coalition at every opportunity. During a period of high unemployment and recession, he opposed every cut furiously. The motives may have differed. Haughey’s ploy was all tactics, no ideology. Nonetheless, it was effective.

For example, Fianna Fáil’s infamous election advertisement from the 1987 election campaign, “Health Cuts Hurt the Old, the Sick and the Handicapped”, was a significant factor in the party winning the election. Notoriously, the party flipped as soon as it re-entered government and implemented all the harshest cuts of the coalition it replaced, and then some.

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It’s interesting to note that that cynical reversal had little impact on support for Haughey’s government. A generation later, in 2016, Labour was hammered by the electorate for having taken a very similar approach with its take on a Tesco ad with the slogan “Every Little Hurts” in the 2011 general election. (The ad warned about cuts that a Fine Gael government would impose; Labour then went into coalition with Fine Gael and implemented many of the same cuts.)

The party has presented itself in this Dáil as the agent of change. The question it must ask itself is: what will change look like?

Arguably, the biggest change that emerged from the Belfast Agreement south of the border has been the rise of Sinn Féin as a political force. It took a quarter of a century for the party to become a biddable alternative to the established parties.

Even then, its rise needed other factors to come into play – namely a gargantuan financial crash (the after-tremors of which are still being felt) and a social transformation that saw Ireland change from one of the most morally conservative countries in Europe to one of the most liberal. It also needed a big dollop of luck and timing.

Civil War politics

In 2020, most voters waved goodbye to Irish Civil War politics. As pollster and academic Kevin Cunningham has argued, the trait that distinguished voter intention in that year’s election was a negative one – a clear rejection of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. When they cast around for an alternative, only one presented itself as a realistic alternative.

That party was the imperfect and incomplete Sinn Féin, which was prepared for a tough election and had pared down its candidate slate after taking a scalping in the local and European elections the previous summer. But McDonald’s performance during that campaign was magnificent. Since then, the party has consolidated those gains and has consistently surged ahead of its two main rivals in polls.

The party has presented itself in this Dáil as the agent of change. The question it must ask itself is: what will change look like?

It’s not 1987 any more. Back then, Haughey was able to backslide on promises after he went into government safe in the knowledge that the party’s base was solid, irrespective of the circumstances. Sinn Féin knows that at least half its current support is conditional and can quickly desert the party if it fails to meet their expectations in government.

[ Pat Leahy: The, good, the bad and the ugly sides of Sinn Féin ]

Symbolically, if it happens, a Sinn Féin-led government would be as dramatic a change of power as that that occurred for the first Fianna Fáil government in 1932. But how much substance will it have?

The sums don’t add up on many of its policy positions in opposition (that’s not unusual) and these will have to be modified. If you compare the party’s positioning now compared with, say, 2000, you can see a process of mainstreaming has taken place. It has modified its stance on many core policies. It no longer votes against extensions of the Special Criminal Court. It has long accepted the lower rate of corporation tax. It has moved from being an EU-sceptic party, to being an EU-critical party, to being close to being a pro-EU party. It quickly erased any residual traces of pro-Russian sentiment in the party once the invasion of Ukraine occurred.

McDonald subtly veered away from the reporter’s description of the party as socialist, opting instead to describe it as a republican party with a commitment to ‘social equality and social justice’

There are numerous examples of the party continuing to go through a modifying process in preparation for government, even as it glowers and growls in the Dáil chamber. Its new front bench has promoted key moderates such as Pa Daly and Rose Conway-Walsh. Its enterprise spokeswoman Louise O’Reilly is in San Francisco this week – the party’s leadership has spent a lot of time reassuring global online companies and foreign-direct investment there is nothing to fear about a Sinn Féin-led government.

In a recent interview with Der Spiegel, McDonald subtly veered away from the reporter’s description of the party as socialist, opting instead to describe it as a republican party with a commitment to “social equality and social justice”.

[ Fintan O'Toole: The full, unexpurgated version of Up the Ra ]

Sinn Féin is unlikely to do a Charlie Haughey but the change the party promotes in opposition can’t be the change it delivers in government.

There is one issue on which the party will brook no compromise. As McDonald told Der Spiegel: “Irish reunification is, of course, the central change dynamic across the island.”

That remains its core, immutable goal.