Shadows of Aleppo and Putin hang over final EU summit of 2016

Although the EU's long-term relationship with Russia was not officially on Thursday's EU summit agenda, the devastation in Aleppo and the rollover of sanctions against Russia overshadowed the last summit of the year.

EU leaders were briefed by German chancellor Angela Merkel and her French counterpart François Hollande on the progress of the Minsk agreement, the ongoing diplomatic process that is governing negotiations on the Ukraine crisis. Both countries are part of the so-called Normandy group that is overseeing the Minsk process.

While ostensibly the EU's sanctions regime against Moscow is directly linked to implementation of the Minsk agreement and Russia's actions in Ukraine, the context of Russia's actions in Syria is inflecting the EU debate about sanctions.

Despite calls over the past year from a number of member states, including Italy, Austria, Greece and Hungary, to soften sanctions against Moscow, the situation in Aleppo has made that a non-starter for now; hence yesterday's decision to roll over the sanctions until mid-2017.

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A suggestion aired in the past month or so to extend the sanctions by three months instead of six failed to garner sufficient support. Similarly, talk of imposing fresh sanctions against Russian individuals and companies directly involved in the Syrian conflict was raised, but ultimately abandoned, as some member states queried the effectiveness of sanctions to respond to the Syrian conflict. The fact that Italy is effectively without a government also removed a pro- Russian voice from the debate for the moment.

The decision to extend the sanctions will now be implemented as early as today by written procedure.

Trump regime

Looming over the EU’s consideration of its policy towards Moscow is the imminent regime change in Washington. President-elect Donald Trump’s Russian sympathies have raised the possibility of a shift in US foreign policy vis-a-vis Moscow.

His nomination of Rex Tillerson as secretary of state, a man who as chief executive of Exxon Mobil formed 10 joint ventures with Russian state-owned energy company Rosneft, has raised concerns that Trump could reconsider the sanctions regime on Russia introduced by president Barack Obama by executive order in 2014. While the EU sanctions against Moscow are distinct from US sanctions, in reality Brussels has taken its decisions to roll over sanctions with the tacit support of Washington.

Although yesterday’s decision has bought the EU time ahead of the inauguration of Trump in January, the bloc’s relationship with Russia is facing more immediate challenges on other fronts.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which prompted the introduction of sanctions in 2014, is becoming increasingly problematic for Europe following the rejection by Dutch voters of a referendum on the EU-Ukraine association agreement.

Yesterday's compromise, which gives additional guarantees to the Netherlands over the implications of the trade deal, should ease the passage of the agreement through the Dutch parliament, though prime minister Mark Rutte warned that this is by no means guaranteed.

Ukraine commitment

Simultaneously, three years after thousands of pro-EU Ukrainians took to the streets in the Maidan protests to demonstrate against the government’s refusal to sign an EU-Ukraine association agreement, questions are being asked in the country about the EU’s commitment to the former Soviet country. A promised visa-free regime for Ukraine has yet to be ratified, much to the frustration of pro-western Ukrainians.

Given that the proposed association agreement was the trigger for the three-year old Ukraine crisis – the last-minute decision by then president Viktor Yanukovych to pull out of the deal prompted the Maidan protests – ratification of the agreement is hugely symbolic.

Officials have been scrambling to balance the demands of the Netherlands on the one hand, which wants a watertight assurance that the proposed trade pact does not mean EU membership talks, while on the other hand sending a message to Moscow that the EU remains committed to Ukraine.

While yesterday’s summit ultimately sent a strong message to Moscow about the EU’s willingness to extend sanctions and support Ukraine, in reality EU foreign policy towards Russia is predicated on what happens next in terms of US foreign policy and the ongoing political manoeuvrings in Syria.

As an important economic and political bloc, but with limited military power, the EU is likely to be a secondary player in the broader geopolitical drama being played out in war-torn Syria.