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Few at Westminster believe Theresa May has the numbers to win a majority for the withdrawal agreement on Friday. But her government hopes to frame the vote as a choice between an orderly Brexit on May 22nd with a long delay, or a sudden exit on April 12th.
MPs will be told that by approving the withdrawal agreement they are simply endorsing Brexit without determining the details of Britain's future relationship with the EU. That relationship, which is contained in the political declaration attached to the agreement, is the subject of a process of indicative voting which started on Wednesday and will continue next Monday.
None of the eight options won a majority on Wednesday but the outcome of the voting, in which MPs could vote for or against any number of options, was illuminating.
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The two most popular options were Conservative Ken Clarke's proposal for a customs union and Labour MP Margaret Beckett's for any deal approved by parliament to be put to a confirmatory referendum.
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Next stage
The next stage of voting will see the options whittled down, probably through a single transferable vote system, with some options merging with others. One MP involved in shaping the process suggested that supporters of the two leading options could come together to propose a customs union with the deal to be put to a referendum.
The DUP voted against six of the options but abstained on two: Common Market 2.0, which would see the UK remain in the single market and the customs union; and a similar option that would see the country joining the European Economic Area and the European Free Trade Association. These votes reinforced the party's message that options for a softer Brexit, ones that would effectively neutralise the backstop, would be preferable to the prime minister's deal.
The DUP will vote against the withdrawal agreement on Friday, along with the opposition parties and at least 20 Conservative Brexiteers, probably ensuring it will be defeated. Even if the government loses, the vote could be useful if the margin of defeat falls dramatically from the 149 who voted against the Brexit deal on March 12th.
A number of high-profile Brexiteers have already dropped their opposition to the deal because they fear that all the available alternatives will be worse. If the indicative votes move the Commons next week towards a softer Brexit or a second referendum, the Brexiteer panic is set to heighten further.