Referendum on EU membership looms over elections

‘Mind The Gap’ – for millions of tourists these words evoke memories of London long after summer holidays are over and the photographs of Buckingham Palace have begun to fade.

Now, however, it’s a phrase heard inside Whitehall’s cabinet office as it mulls over the prospects of a referendum on European Union membership in three years’ time.

Once, a referendum was unlikely. Today, it is not certain, but it is increasingly unthinkable that it can be avoided unless David Cameron is no longer in charge of number 10 Downing Street after next May’s election.

Within the Irish Government, the British debate is being closely watched, since the disadvantages of a UK departure from the EU far outweigh the short-term advantages that could accrue to Ireland from her going.

Liberal Democrats leader Nick Clegg, who could be needed to make up the numbers depending on the result, has signalled that a referendum may not be a “red line” for him in coalition talks.

Recently, Cameron nudged his pledge a little further out into the political waters, ruling out leading a minority Conservative government that could not guarantee it would be able to hold a referendum.

Inside the cabinet office, officials, as officials do, are preparing for life after May 2015, which is where “Mind The Gap” comes in – the name loosely given to a negotiating strategy that would deliver core protections for the UK short of a treaty change.

Under such a strategy, London would demand changes to EU rules that could be achieved among EU states by a simplified revision procedure – one that would need unanimity at the European Council, but fall shy of a full treaty renegotiation.

Such a deal, if it could be won, would, for example, copper-fasten guarantees to non-euro zone countries that the single market could not be threatened by closer co-operation among those using the single currency.

“Nothing related to deeper EMU [European Monetary Union] could threaten the single market and if any state felt that it did then they could go to the European Council, where unanimity would be needed. But it wouldn’t change anything that is previously agreed,” says one observer.

In addition, it would guarantee that the populations of future member states would be subject to much longer restrictions before they would be able to work freely elsewhere in the union, while benefit rules could be tightened up.

Tighter welfare rules Cameron and the British are not alone on the latter point: nine EU governments, pressed by growing Eurosceptic opinion that is set to make itself felt in this week's elections, want tighter welfare benefit rules for citizens from other EU states.

The second strategy has been nicknamed “Widen The Channel” – one that seeks to opt out from parts of existing EU treaties. It seeks exclusion from efforts to move towards an ever closer union, and protections for the City of London.

Here, Cameron’s chances of success are slim, particularly since London signally fails to hear German chancellor Angela Merkel’s politely delivered warnings that while she is prepared to be helpful, she is not prepared to force others to agree.

The “Mind The Gap” strategy is deliverable to a degree, even if it would fall shy of some demands that Cameron laid out in his Bloomberg speech in January 2013 – the speech that was supposed to end debate about the EU within the party, but did not. However, Cameron’s tendency to react to events rather than seek to lead them has narrowed his room for manoeuvre, especially if coalition talks are necessary after the election.

A minority of his MPs want to quit the EU. Nearly all want changes to membership conditions. Few want a second coalition deal with the Liberal Democrats. Most would prefer a minority government. All want a vote on a coalition if no alternative can be found.

Still, Cameron, who is braced for a UK Independence Party victory in this week’s European elections, believes he has a strategy – “I’m the only man who will guarantee a referendum and be able to deliver it” – that will fend off Ukip in the end. However, Cameron faces important decisions quickly, including whether former Luxembourg prime minister Jean- Claude Juncker or the German socialist Martin Schulz should be the next president of the European Commission.

Schulz, currently president of the European Parliament, is no fan of the British, making little effort in private conversations to hide his disdain for the idea that other EU states should have to do anything to help soothe London’s neuralgia.

Labour support Cameron does not want him, but would prefer Labour's Ed Miliband to put the kibosh on his chances, though Labour MEPs cannot deny the German support and hope to have position and influence in the European Parliament afterwards.

If the latest polls are to be believed, the Conservatives will end up with 22 per cent of the vote and 17 MEPs after the Euro elections – a disastrous nine seats fewer than they won in 2009. But some fear it could even be worse.

The Conservatives are part of the 43-strong European Conservatives and Reformists group, but there are doubts that this group will have the necessary 25 MEPs from seven states in its ranks to qualify as a grouping following the elections.

Their options could then be limited, though the leadership of Alternativ für Deutschland – the Eurosceptics who concern Merkel’s CDU so much – may be interested. However, association with them would destroy Cameron’s relationship with Merkel.

The Conservatives have predicted that Ukip will head the poll in a bid to dampen expectations, though many sitting behind Cameron in the Commons are actually happy enough to see a Ukip win now if it puts steel into his spine in EU talks.

However, the Conservative leader can hope for more discipline in the ranks, publicly at least, than he has enjoyed often before – if only because the image of a divided party is seen even by his enemies within to be a negative with voters. Mark Hennessy is London Editor