London Letter: Trump success calls special relationship into question

When Theresa May spoke to Donald Trump on Thursday afternoon, the president-elect told her he was confident that the special relationship between Britain and the United States would go from strength to strength. The call came too late for much of the British press, however, who noted that others had received a call before the prime minister.

“What special relationship?” asked the Telegraph?

"Donald Trump speaks to nine other world leaders – including Ireland's Enda Kenny – before Theresa May".   More galling than the Taoiseach's earlier call was Trump's decision to phone Angela Merkel ahead of her British counterpart. After all, May issued a warm statement following Tuesday's election, while Merkel's cool response contained something close to a warning to Trump.   "Germany and America are connected by values of democracy, freedom and respect for the law and the dignity of man, independent of origin, skin colour, religion, gender, sexual orientation or political views," said the German chancellor.   "I offer the next president of the United States close co-operation on the basis of these values."

Meanwhile, Trump's best friend in Britain, Ukip leader Nigel Farage, was savouring speculation that the president-elect would make him his special adviser on Europe.

“It’s a fantastic idea isn’t it – on the basis of total chaos and anarchy,” he said.

“Trump actually hates the EU even more than I do so it wouldn’t be a bad appointment but no, listen, it’s probably not going to happen, is it?”

Trump, whose mother was Scottish, backed Brexit and has promised that Britain would “always be treated fantastically” if he became president. He wants to abandon US trade talks with the EU but favours bilateral trade deals of the kind Britain will be free to negotiate if it leaves the EU customs union after Brexit.

Trump’s election nonetheless represents a challenge for Britain’s foreign and defence policy, not least on account of his long-standing commitment to making America’s allies pay for the superpower’s military protection. He has cast doubt on Washington’s commitment to Nato’s Article 5, which commits all of the alliance’s members to come to the defence of any member which comes under attack.

US allies

As far back as 1987, Trump took out a full-page advertisement in the New York Times and the Washington Post, complaining that US allies had been taking advantage of the country's generosity, and demanding that they pay the full cost of the protection it provided. Almost 30 years later, this sentiment remains at the core of his "America First" foreign policy, which questions the value of Nato and argues that the US should disentangle itself from the Middle East.

Successive US presidents have complained about Europe’s failure to bear its fair share of the defence burden but Trump has gone further, demanding that America’s allies pay the full cost.

"We have spent trillions of dollars over time on planes, missiles, ships, equipment, building up our military to provide a strong defence for Europe and Asia. The countries we are defending must pay for the cost of this defence, and if not, the US must be prepared to let these countries defend themselves," he told a Washington think tank in April.

Britain is among a handful of Nato member states which fulfils its obligation to spend at least 2 per cent on defence, although the figure is flattered by including the cost of intelligence. Intelligence sharing is likely to continue under the Five Eyes agreement, which includes the US, Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. And the US and Britain will continue to co-operate on nuclear defence and on military and special forces operations against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

British policymakers are alarmed, however, by another consistent strand in Trump's world view: his admiration for authoritarian strongmen, notably Russian president Vladimir Putin. Trump's campaign intervened to water down support for Ukraine in this year's Republican party platform and the president-elect has said he would consider recognising Russia's annexation of Crimea.

At last month's EU summit in Brussels, May joined Merkel in pressing unsuccessfully for tougher sanctions against Russia in response to its actions in Syria. And Britain's intelligence chiefs have warned repeatedly about the threat to cybersecurity represented by Russian state-sponsored hackers.

The decision to leave the EU will remove Britain’s only potential backstop if Trump turns his back on the western alliance or sets the US on a foreign policy course so reckless that it is unacceptable to British public opinion. In the meantime, May has little choice but to cling to the special relationship and hope fervently for the best.